Equities advanced on Thursday, extending the week's Santa Claus Rally to about 0.75%. The rally may continue on Friday, but it looks unlikely we'll see a new all-time high on the S&P 500 until next year. As robust as the outlook is for 2024, there are concerns that earnings growth will not be as good as forecasted and that the FOMC may tip the economy into recession. Because it takes 12 months or longer for FOMC policy changes to take full effect, the impact of rate hikes in the first half of 2023 are still working their way through the system and could cause a marked contraction in activity come January.

The question on every trader's mind is what will happen with the S&P 500 index on Tuesday when the new trading year starts. One risk is that enough traders will sit on the sidelines, waiting to see what happens, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In that scenario, downside momentum could build quickly, leading the market into a full-blown correction.