It's the first trading week of the New Year, and all eyes will be on the data. The monthly labor market data is due over the week and may lead the market to a new high. Solid employment and wage gains will help clear the path to a soft landing, allowing the FOMC to start cutting rates early in the year. As it is, the market expects the first cuts by March.

Earnings season begins next week with reports from the big banks. The banks will likely report robust gains driven by high interest rates; the question is what condition the consumer is in. Consumer spending is the driving force of the US economy; a shock to the spending outlook will undercut the outlook for earnings and any rally that may form in the S&P 500.