Equity markets fell for the 2nd trading day in January, marking the start of what could become a significant contraction for the S&P 500. The index shows signs of topping below critical resistance with a growing consensus that January will be a hard month for mega-cap stocks. Names from Apple to Amazon are moving lower as investors shed holdings in overcrowded names to raise capital. The thought is that a rut in the first half will quickly lead to a market bottom and the next great entry point for index investors.

Among the signs of impending doom are the VIX and non-cyclical safe-haven stocks like the Consumer Discretionaries. Both move higher, indicating rising fear and a high probability of stock market correction. If the market can't regain traction soon, downward momentum could build in the broader market. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could correct as much as 20% or more with or without a recession.