Financial markets are currently being driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy expectations, and renewed trade uncertainty. Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets await clarity on potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which could reignite global trade frictions.

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The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips towards parity, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276 in the days ahead. Only a monthly close below 1.0000 negates.

The Euro took a bit of a hit on Tuesday after Euro area inflation data came in softer than expected. ECB Rehn backed this up after saying an ECB cut in April would be the right decision if the current baseline held. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

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Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

It appears the UK’s pragmatic approach to tariffs is benefiting the Pound right now, which has held relatively well considering. BOE Greene was on the wires saying tariffs were on balance ‘disinflationary’ for the UK. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

The Yen has been better bid overall on solid economic data that points to more rate hikes ahead from the BOJ. At the same time, uncertainty around US tariffs has kept the currency from running too far and fast. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

The Australian Dollar is stressing about the details around US tariffs. RBA Bullock has tried to downplay the risk saying any new tariffs would likely be offset by a China response of increased stimulus. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

The Canadian Dollar got a boost from the news that Canada and Mexico had come to an agreement on safeguarding North American competitiveness. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

The New Zealand Dollar remains highly sensitive to overall risk sentiment and awaits the details around today’s US tariffs. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from US ADP employment and factory orders. We also get the highly anticipated details around US tariffs.

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. But we are in the throes of a meaningful correction with scope for the pullback to extend back towards major previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2022 high at 4820.

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we’ve already seen a little of this as 2025 gets going.

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension towards 3500. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2800 on a monthly close basis.

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.