Prof. Michael G. Plummer.

Global trade has been slowing significantly of late; last year, it grew by only 2.8 percent, on par with global GDP for the first time in many years, and is expected to do the same this year. This lackluster growth is particularly problematic for developing economies. While the origins of this slowdown are many, a decline in the pace of trade policy liberalization no doubt plays and important role. In the context of stalled multilateral negotiations under the WTO, more aggressive concerned regional liberalization, or "mega-regionalism", has been proposed as a possible solution. Mega-regional trace negotiations currently include the Trans-Pacific Partnership (RCEP) between ASEAN and six Asian partners; and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and EU. At present, only the TPP has been signed (February 2016) - though not ratified. Given that it is slated to be modern "21st Century" trade agreement embracing deep integration, the TPP could have not only significant direct economic effects but also far-reaching ramifications for global trade governance. Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we consider the economic ramifications of the TPP but also analyze the political economy of mega-regionalism as well its implications for the future of the global trading system, with a focus on developing economies.

Michael G. Plummer has been Director of SAIS Europe since 2014. A SAIS Professor of International Economics since 2001 and the Eni Professor of Economics since 2008, he was Head of the Development Division of the Organization for Economic Co-opration and Development (OECD) in Paris from 2010 to 2012; an associate professor at Brandeis University (1992-2001); and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Asian Economics (Elsevier) 2007-2015. He was president of the American Committee on Asian Economics Studies (ACAES) from 2008 until 2015 and is currently a nonresident senior fellow at the East-West Centre. A former Fulbright Chair in Economics and Pew Fellow in International Affairs at Harvard University, he has been an Asian Development Bank (ADB) distinguished lecturer on several occasions and team leader of projects for various organizations including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the United Nations, the OECD, the ADB and the World Trade Organization. He has taught at more than a dozen universities in Asia, Europe, and North America. Professor Plummer has advised several governments on the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and is member of the editorial boards of World Development, the Asian Economic Journal; and the Asean Economic Challenges and Future Direction (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015); The Transpacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Intergration: A Quantitative Assessment (PIIE, 2012); and Realizing the ASEAN Economic Community (ISEAS, 2009), and is author/co-author of over 100 journal articles and book chapters. His Ph.D. is in Economics from Michigan State University.

Speaker(s):

Professor Michael G. Plummer, Dr Ulrich Volz

Event Date:

21 November 2016

Released by:

SOAS Economics Podcast