Today's episode examines the breakdown of the era of cheap capital as energy volatility and semiconductor demand drive a structural decoupling of central bank mandates from inflation trends. We analyze how the convergence of the AI super-cycle and maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a new macro regime defined by persistent inflationary friction.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - Inflation, Interest Rates, and the New Macro Regime
10:27 - The AI Super-Cycle and Silicon Sovereignty
16:59 - Chokepoints and Conflict: The Global Energy Crisis
21:22 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
EM Fixed Income Assessing EM amid the global repricing of rates (At Any Rate)
Surging Borrowing Costs, EU-US Deal Advances, Nuns Get Financially Savvy (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Target Tempers Expectations After Best Sales Gain in Years (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Home Depot's Sales Fall Short on Lackluster Housing Recovery (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 20th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Paul Sankey & James Egelhof (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 19th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joe Lavorgna & Becca Wasser (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Can the Asia Equity Rally Continue (Exchanges)
Trapped in the Strait of Hormuz (The Journal.)
280. Should the government set food prices (The Rest Is Money)
The Case for Staying Bullish on Equities (Thoughts on the Market)
Top of the Morning Election Watch - Unified government at a crossroads (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Capping inflation' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Luxury during wartime (Unhedged)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the intensifying collision between the era of autonomous AI agents and the finite constraints of global energy and supply chain infrastructure. We analyze the strategic implications of the NextEra-Dominion merger, the rising 'warflation' risks in the Persian Gulf, and the structural shift toward a high-cost, hardware-dependent global economy.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:41 - The AI Arms Race and the Power Grid Pivot
8:10 - The New Era of Regional Warfare and Energy Volatility
14:05 - Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Yield Curve
17:47 - Political Polarization and the Erosion of Oversight
19:45 - The Structural Shift in Global Banking and Credit
21:46 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
US Delays New Iran Attack, AI Banking Job Cuts, Milan's Wealth Boom (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang & Dell CEO Michael Dell on Agentic AI, Memory Demand and China (Bloomberg Intelligence)
NextEra to Buy Dominion for $67 Billion to Create U.S Power Giant (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joe Lavorgna & Becca Wasser (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Equity Push as Bond Yields Rise (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 18th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Ep.138 Real Conversations → Markets, the Economy & the Global Risk Landscape w Jim Rickards (Hedgeye Podcasts)
Deutsche Bank's Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal on Understanding the Macro Risks (Odd Lots)
Elon's Big Loss, Trump's Stock Trades, and OpenAI vs. Apple (Pivot)
Inside Trump's 3,700 Trades - ft. Anthony Scaramucci (Prof G Markets)
Clarity Act Clears a Milestone Is This the Catalyst REKT Vision May 15, 2026 (Real Vision: Finance & Investing)
Are Markets Ignoring Inflation Macro Mondays May 18, 2026 (Real Vision: Finance & Investing)
Private Credit Has a Weak Underwriting Discipline Problem (The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence)
How to End the Gerrymandering Doom Loop Forever (The Ezra Klein Show)
How Digital Assets Are Changing Banking (Thoughts on the Market)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Markets' cynicism premium' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Top of the Morning CIO Strategy Snapshot - Policy puts vs. errors (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the widening divergence between hyper-growth AI sectors and a global landscape defined by localized volatility and supply-side shocks. We analyze how the decoupling of capital flows, rising fiscal deficits, and geopolitical energy risks are fundamentally rewriting the rules of institutional risk management.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:57 - Market Dynamics: From Global Indices to Local Industry
7:23 - Geopolitical Fault Lines and Energy Volatility
13:11 - Macro Headwinds: Inflation, Yields, and Fiscal Deficits
18:27 - The Great AI Arbitrage: Earnings vs. Expectation
20:44 - The New Era of Credit and Banking Regulation
23:01 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
Asia Cross Asset Taking stock of the North Asian equity surge (At Any Rate)
Global Bond Rout Deepens, China Economy Slows, 250% UK Deals Frenzy (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 18th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Iran Oil Sanctions, LIRR Strike, Primary Electiona in Focus (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Credit Crunch TCW's Miller on Rescue Capital and Direct Lending (FICC Focus)
Bill Beach on the Future of United States' Economic Statistics and Fiscal Position (Macro Musings with David Beckworth)
A Basel III Deep Dive What to Know About How It Will Transform Banking Globally (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
Why Andy Constan Says The AI Bubble is in Earnings, Not Price (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
Why the Price of Oil, Beef, Electricity, and Everything Else Makes No Sense (Odd Lots)
Inflation Is Soaring - Here's What Happens Next (Prof G Markets)
279. Why SMEs want more than verbal enthusiasm from politicians (The Rest Is Money)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'MORE MARKET ANGST' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Signal over Noise Will higher rates derail the equity rally (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
TIP815 Lyn Alden on Why Fiscal Dominance Changes Everything (We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the breakdown of global equilibrium as US-China trade relations shift toward a corporate-led procurement model and energy bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz threaten a massive volume shock. We analyze the structural transition from a software-driven AI boom to a capital-intensive infrastructure era, alongside the intensifying institutional instability at the Federal Reserve.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Geopolitical Friction: The US-China Summit and Energy Shocks
7:16 - The AI Arms Race: From Chips to Cybersecurity
14:11 - The Fed's Last Stand and the Warsh Transition
18:07 - The Great Divergence: Inflation, Debt, and the Consumer
21:09 - Credit Cycles and Market Dislocations
23:17 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
In Focus Frontier AI (At Any Rate)
UK Turmoil Hits Pound, Trump-Xi Talk Iran, Powell's Term Ends, $100k A Day Wealth Tax (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
UK Turmoil Hits Pound, Trump-Xi Play Nice, Powell's Term Ends, $100k A Day Wealth Tax (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Cisco Jumps Most Since 2011 on Sales Outlook (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Equities, Bonds, and Geopolitics (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Bob Hormats & Ian Lyngen (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 14th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
State of Distressed Trucano on Distressed Investing's Evolution (FICC Focus)
Macro Matters NISA Investments' Douglass on Fed, Fiscal Outlook (FICC Focus)
The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone Weekly Roundup (Forward Guidance)
Global Data Pod Weekender Le coût de la vie (Global Data Pod)
Taking stock of today's markets (Insights Now)
MacroVoices #532 Mike Green Record Mechanical Flows (Macro Voices)
Markets Happy Hour Podcast May 14, 2026 - Live from New York (Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt)
Why SocGen's Albert Edwards Sees Double-Digit Inflation Coming Back (Odd Lots)
Trump's China Summit, Inflation Shock, and Silicon Valley's Midterm Money (Pivot)
Who should be the next Prime Minister (Political Currency)
The AI Boom Is Headed For A Reckoning - ft. Aswath Damodaran (Prof G Markets)
JPMorgan Is Wary of Another Big Leap in AI-Related Spending (The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence)
Jerome Powell's Last Stand at the Fed (The Journal.)
A Tale of Two Markets (The Markets)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Saying stability without substance' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
What's bothering bonds (Unhedged)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the structural shift from globalized efficiency to a regime of high-cost, localized resilience driven by the US-China trade realignment. We analyze the transition of the AI revolution from a software-centric story to a heavy-industry bottleneck defined by energy, minerals, and infrastructure constraints.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:33 - The Great Power Tussle: Beijing, Washington, and the New Summit
6:29 - Beyond the Software: The Physical Bottlenecks of the AI Era
12:45 - Monetary Crossroads: Central Bank Uncertainty and Inflation Risks
16:18 - Redefining the Portfolio: Escaping the 60/40 Trap
19:47 - Political Instability and Regional Shifts from London to the Caucasus
21:59 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
In Focus Frontier AI (At Any Rate)
Xi Warns Trump Of 'Clashes', Rayner Cleared of Wrongdoing , £1.3 Trillion City Fight (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Anthropic in Talks to Raise $30 Billion at $900 Billion Value (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Seema Shah & Paul Quinsee (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 14th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 13th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Global Data Pod The Changing Chessboard of the South Caucasus (Global Data Pod)
Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay) (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
200 Is the 6040 Portfolio Still Fit for Purpose State Street Investment Management's CEO, Yie Hsin Hung, Discusses Flows, Valuations, EM, Private Equity Returns and Tokenisation, the Next Investment Frontier (Money Maze Podcast)
Who should be the next Prime Minister (Political Currency)
AI Skeptic This Business Makes No Sense (Prof G Markets)
The World According to AI (Real Vision: Finance & Investing)
Trump and Xi to Meet at High-Stakes Summit (The Journal.)
Trump returns to Beijing what's at stake (The Rachman Review)
Ben Horowitz - Your ONLY job is Right Product, Right Time (The a16z Show)
What to Expect From the U.S.-China Summit (Thoughts on the Market)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Resilience-economics 1, politics 0' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode explores the growing tension between a trillion-dollar AI expansion and the intensifying constraints of energy, minerals, and debt. We analyze how the shift from intangible software to massive physical infrastructure is rewriting the rules for central banks, corporate strategy, and global power dynamics.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - Monetary Policy and the Inflation Trap
8:55 - The AI Infrastructure Arms Race
15:51 - Credit Markets and Private Lending Dynamics
18:55 - The New Era of Consumer and Corporate Strategy
21:57 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
Charles & Chase Koch on How They Quietly Built a $150B Empire (All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg)
Anthropic in Talks to Raise $30 Billion at $900 Billion Value (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 13th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Private Credit Stress Test as Market Carries On (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Innovation and Inflation Twin Forces Reshaping Portfolios (Exchanges)
Credit Crunch UK Crisis, Private and Middle-Market Credit (FICC Focus)
FX Moment Sterling, UK Politics; What Can Take Dollar-Yen Lower (FICC Focus)
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy Neil Dutta (Forward Guidance)
Samanth Subramanian on the Undersea Cables That Keep the Internet Alive (Odd Lots)
Hottest Inflation Report In 3 Years Has One Big Problem (Prof G Markets)
Energy, Minerals, and the Physical Stack Behind AI (The a16z Show)
How Your Body Data Could Reshape Sectors (Thoughts on the Market)
GM100 Central Banks in the Dark Inflation, AI, and the Limits of Control ft. David Beckworth (Top Traders Unplugged)
Credit Snapshot with UBS Asset Management (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Top of the Morning CEO Macro Briefing Book - Q2 update (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode explores the high-stakes tension between AI-driven disinflation and the rising costs of the physical infrastructure required to sustain it. We dive into the systemic risks of cognitive atrophy in the workforce and the massive, structural migration of global credit into the private sphere.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - The Inflation Pendulum: From Energy Shocks to Tech Disinflation
8:42 - The Human Element: Cognitive Atrophy and the Future of Work
14:28 - The AI Power Play: Infrastructure, Capex, and the New Supply Chain
19:30 - Credit Crossroads: Navigating Private Credit and Systemic Risk
21:50 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
Inflation crosscurrents Energy vs AI (Barclays Brief)
EBay Spurns GameStop's Bid as 'Neither Credible Nor Attractive' (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Cracks in Private Credit (Exchanges)
408 Unpacking the US Investment Outlook (L&G Talks Asset Management)
Lending Where the Banks Won't Go What's Fueling Europe's Growing Real Estate Private Credit Market (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
Midterm Map Wars, AirPods Revamp, and Trump Phone Grift (Pivot)
AI Is Making Us All Dumber (Prof G Markets)
She Let AI Take Over Her Life For a Year (The Journal.)
Lloyd Blankfein on Risk, Crisis, and Leadership (The a16z Show)
Why AI Funding Is So Price-Insensitive (Thoughts on the Market)
Talking Markets Podcast with Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the profound loss of cohesion across global markets, from the fragmentation of S&P 500 correlations to the weaponization of supply chains. We explore why the era of predictable averages is ending, forcing investors to move beyond passive indices to find alpha in a world of extreme, independent outliers.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
1:01 - The New Era of AI: Beyond the Hype and Hallucinations
8:14 - Geopolitical Friction and the Fragile Global Supply Chain
12:33 - Inflationary Shocks and the Unpredictable Macro Landscape
16:50 - The Death of the Passive Index? Finding Alpha in a Decoupling Market
19:41 - Global Shifts: From China's Re-rating to the Future of Stablecoins
22:02 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
UK PM Leadership Threat, Trump Slams Iran Proposal, Soaring Emerging Markets (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 11th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
US & Iran Wrangle Over Deal Terms to End War (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Tyler Goodspeed on Challenging the Way Economists Look at Recessions (Macro Musings with David Beckworth)
Evolving Money Stablecoins in Practice and Policy (Sponsored Content) (Masters in Business)
Why Generative AI Still Can't Trade David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
The Bank of England's Megan Greene on Monetary Policy in a World of Supply Shocks (Odd Lots)
AI's New Trillion Dollar Mission Delete Middle Management (Prof G Markets)
ROI not AGI (Guest Leonid Mironov) (The Market Huddle)
277. How to make green energy a vote winner (The Rest Is Money)
Marc Andreessen on Builder Culture in the Age of AI (The a16z Show)
SI399 AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne (Top Traders Unplugged)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Accepting the totally unacceptable' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Signal over Noise The case for active investing (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode explores a global architecture in flux, from the systemic risks of depleted European gas reserves to the breakdown of S&P 500 correlations. We analyze how the collision of energy scarcity, the AI ROI reckoning, and widening interest rate spreads is erasing the middle ground and replacing systemic momentum with localized, high-volatility intensity.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Geopolitical Friction and Energy Security
5:23 - Structural Shifts in Labor and Consumption
9:17 - The AI Reckoning: From Hype to ROI
13:00 - Liquidity Shifts and Market Concentration
16:31 - The New Macro Frontier: Rates and FX
18:10 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly, FDA for AI Panic, Trading the AI Boom (All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg)
Global Rates - And now my fears, they come to me in threes (At Any Rate)
Global Commodities An Inventory Detour (At Any Rate)
Lyft Earnings Miss Estimates After Global Expansion Push (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Kevin Gordon & John Stoltzfus (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 8th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Reacting to the April US Jobs Report (Bloomberg Surveillance)
'It's the Liquidity, Stupid' Protect the Pile Episode 11 (Hedgeye Podcasts)
Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 7, 2026 - When Hormuz Hath No Fury (Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt)
Why Generative AI Still Can't Trade David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting (Monetary Matters with Jack Farley)
ROI not AGI (Guest Leonid Mironov) (The Market Huddle)
Ben Horowitz on the Next Technology Era (The a16z Show)
The New Playbook for Real Estate Net Lease Investing (Thoughts on the Market)
SI399 AI, Inflation and the Portfolio That Refuses to Sit Still ft. Alan Dunne (Top Traders Unplugged)
Signal over Noise The case for active investing (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.

Today's episode examines the collision between surging AI demand and the fragile physical realities of global supply chains, from the Hormuz oil standoff to the energy-starved data center boom. We dissect how the transition from cost-optimization to resource-security is driving a K-shaped global economy and redefining the next frontier of private credit.

Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com

0:00 - Introduction
1:28 - The Hormuz Standoff: Energy Security and Global Supply Shocks
10:46 - The AI Inflection Point: From Speculative Hype to Infrastructure Reality
16:00 - Monetary Crossroads: The Fed’s New Leadership and Rate Trajectories
20:20 - Macro Divergence: K-Shaped Economies and Labor Market Shifts
23:35 - The New Asset Frontier: Private Credit, Secondaries, and Real Assets
26:39 - Conclusion

Referenced sources:
Starmer Facing Wipeout, US Bombs Iran Targets, Europe's Power Shock (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition)
Wall Street Poised for Bonus Increases in 'Year of the Bank' (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 8th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Kevin Gordon & John Stoltzfus (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Reacting to the April US Jobs Report (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 7th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Macro Matters BI's Ira Jersey Talks Fed & US Rates Outlook (FICC Focus)
Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class Weekly Roundup (Forward Guidance)
Alternative Realities How will portfolios evolve with inflation, credit and innovation (Insights Now)
How to pick funds, Diageo & hotel stocks Companies and Markets Show (Investors' Chronicle)
Ep. 357 Andrew Perry on the Five Pillars of Global Macro, Liquidity, and Australia's Macro Risks (Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez)
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict (Macro Voices)
Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 7, 2026 - When Hormuz Hath No Fury (Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt)
OpenAI Trial Soap Opera, ChatGPT's Stock Picks, and Remembering Ted Turner (Pivot)
Why are Labour so aggressive on the Greens (Political Currency)
Why Oil Still Runs the World - ft. Daniel Yergin (Prof G Markets)
HarbourVest Expects Private Credit Secondaries Volume to Double (The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence)
Will AI help the Fed conquer inflation With Austan Goolsbee (The Economics Show)
A Data Center Revolt in Missouri (The Journal.)
How to Trade Oil Now (The Markets)
Special Encore AI's Next Big Leap (Thoughts on the Market)
UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Firing amidst a ceasefire' (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 63) (UBS On-Air: Market Moves)
The Buy America trade (Unhedged)

This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.