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Few investors expect a swift resolution to the Iran conflagration. But that's not what the oil markets are telling us. Spot is in excess of $115 per Brent barrel whilst December futures are still hovering at $85.

The key concern is that the US get 'bored' with the lack of a swift solution and simply walk away. This would leave the straits of Hormuz at the beck and call of the Iranian authorities and would suggest that the transport of oil would remain imperilled for the foreseeable future. That scenario would suggest that despite a potential US withdrawal, the oil price shock does not go away.

The S&P500 Index is trading below the all crucial 200 day moving average and the Nasdaq is in correction territory. The S&P500 Index Put:Call ratio is at 1.3. Decidedly bearish but not in capitulation territory having reached 2.3 in 2022. Conditions can get worse but worth noting that post the 2022 decline, the subsequent rally returned 55% trough to peak.

Inflation fears abound, investors fear a hike in rates and the OECD had reduced growth assumptions for the global economy to 2.9% and suggesting that the UK will be the worst hit if all G20 countries.

We do not believe that a Kevin Warsh led Fed will raise rates. Moreover, we continue to view the Fed as a soothing layer for an economy whose growth characteristics are becoming murkier. The next Fed move remains downward in our view.

Having said that, inflationary pressure is a real threat. Transportation costs will increase and stay elevated longer than markets believe even if the US walk away from the conflict. But to us, that means rates fall 25bps this year and potentially a further 25bps in 27. Ie a much slower decline than forecasts pre war.

Meta's tobacco moment? Two key court cases have gone against them. They have been found guilty of creating addictive algorithms (Google has been inculcated in this too) and that Meta had not sufficiently protected youngsters against predators.

For us, the key are the advertisers. We don't believe that brands will abandon Meta. With pattern recognition becoming so much more granular thanks to AI adoption, brands have 1. Limited access to consumers digitally and 2. Their ROI on marketing budgets are improving daily. Meta's platforms play a crucial role. 

Furthermore, under 18's account for less than 10% of the user base. Better age verification and controls are required. This is a relatively low cost to business for Meta. We do not believe this is that Tobacco moment.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.