In today's episode, we delve into Mexico's looming economic challenges as Fitch Ratings predicts a GDP contraction for 2025. We explore the impact of U.S. trade tensions and the Mexican government's fiscal strategies. Despite some positive indicators like stable inflation and exchange rates, the threat of recession remains. Join us as we analyze the factors influencing Mexico's economic outlook and the potential for recovery in 2026.

Sources:

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2679639-risks-rising-for-possible-recession-in-mexico-analysts

https://mexicobusiness.news/finance/news/mexico-lowers-growth-forecast-amid-trade-uncertainty

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/trumps-tariff-mexicos-economy-part-3needs-a-rethink-a-perspective-from-our-ceo-part-3/

https://www.latinnews.com/component/k2/item/105420.html?archive=3&Itemid=6&cat_id=836243%3Ain-brief-fitch-affirms-mexico-s-stable-outlook-but-notes-risks

https://macroattachment.cloud.itau.com.br/attachments/2b44fe9f-d2ab-42fa-b591-0bfe1fba35d7/MacroScenario-MX_Apr25.pdf

https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-6-764768-20250417

https://www.raymondjames.com/-/media/rj/dotcom/files/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy/weekly-headings.pdf?la=en

https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/industrial-production

https://enrichedthinking.scotiawealthmanagement.com/2025/04/15/full-report-bamboozled-tariffs-twists-and-policy-shifts/

https://www.monex.com.mx/portal/download/reportes/Economic%20Forecasts%20110425.pdf