Last week we set the markers for why we think 2026 will be largely economically expansive in nature, particularly in the 1st half and led by the US. This week we look at the themes that may dominate within the scope of the macro background that we have posited.

The biggest trade in 2025 was AI capex. This is a revolutionary movement and will continue into 2026. At the edge, we’ll begin to see the productivity benefits and the impact of Agentics on workflows. Developments in Inference requiring 15x memory power to just LLMs will require further capex and energy which becomes the major bottleneck.

Lower interest rates and fear of higher inflation will drive Gold & commodities higher. But Trump’s need to keep a lid on prices is unlikely to benefit oil as it retains a tight range with a ceiling driven by Saudi led production and a floor driven by US intimidation of Venezuela that keeps the oil price just where it remains viable for US shale production to continue.

Financials in the US benefit from better margins thanks to a steepening yield curve whilst the Space race continues apace with the IPO of SpaceX as potentially the biggest ever in the Spring.

The higher long-end of the yield curve may well affect mortgages leading to continued under performance in housing. Trump’s anti sustainability stance is not going to help the alternative energy space and China & UK domestic demand will not help their markets to thrive.

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You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.