Episode 88: Mike and David revisit their predictions from 2 months ago (Episode 83). In Oct, we will discuss where stimulus V went, election dynamics, and policy (top down) & reactions (bottom up) to slow the virus.

Blog post on why tech firms are worth so much (monopoly power): https://crookedtimber.org/2020/08/11/intangibles-monopoly/

Motto: "Reality is now buried under hope; when it’s uncovered, people are going to panic.."

Personal savings (BEA data. Table 2.6, line 35)

2019 (average): 7.5%

Jan 2020: 7.6%

Feb 2020: 8.3%

Mar 2020: 12.8%

Apr 2020: 33.5% (!!!)

May 2020: 24.2%

Jun 2020: 19.0%

David's data sources:

Unemployment (backward looking): www.bls.gov

Market indices (forward looking): www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

Consumer sentiment (forward looking): fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

Mike's preferred indicators, with weights from 1 (most) to 5 (least) important. Data compare 2 Jun >>> 4 Aug

Dow: 25,740 >>> 26,754

S&P 500: 3,080 >>> 3,295

NASDAQ: 9,600 >>> 10,875

Gold: $1,730/oz >>> $2,016

Oil: $36.80/bbl >>> $41.60

USD/€: $1.11/€ >>> $1.17/€

10yr UST: 0.68% >>> 0.52%

30yr UST: 1.48% >>> 1.19%

10yr AAA GO: 0.84% >>> ??

30yr AAA GO: 1.65% >>> ??

Wholesale Inventories (MoM): 0.4% >>> ?? [1]

Retail Inventories (MoM): -3.6% >>> ?? [1]

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (YoY): -16.2% >>> ?? [3]

Personal Income (YoY): 10.5% >>> ?? [3]

Personal Spending (YoY): -13.6% >>> ?? [3]

Real Personal Spending (YoY): -12.9% >>> ?? [3]

Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2020): 71.8 >>> 78.1 [3]

Housing Starts (MoM): -30.2% >>> ?? [3]

Building Permits (MoM): -20.8% >>> ?? [3]

ADP Employment Change (MoM): -2.8MM >>> +2.4MM (Jun) [3]

Initial Jobless Claims (WoW): 2,1MM >>> 1.43MM [5]

Continuing Claims: 21.1MM >>> 17.0MM(18 Jul) [5]