Nick's Commute Briefings

Mini MBA 02 - Thinking and Bias in Pharma Investment Decisions


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Examines how System 1 (intuitive) and System 2 (analytical) thinking influence pharmaceutical pipeline investment decisions, a high-stakes environment. It highlights how cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, champion bias, anchoring, and availability bias can lead to costly errors in this industry. To mitigate these risks, the source introduces structured decision-making protocols like "write-then-discuss" and "disagree and commit," alongside formal decision analysis frameworks. Furthermore, it discusses the inherent tension between regulatory and commercial teams' risk perspectives and advocates for integrating both viewpoints through cross-functional teams, explicit risk frameworks, and scenario planning to achieve more balanced and ethically sound investment outcomes.

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Nick's Commute BriefingsBy Nick Warth