Introduces Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets" framework, which offers a probabilistic approach to decision-making, particularly relevant for the pharmaceutical industry's complex pipeline management. This framework emphasizes separating decision quality from outcomes, recognizing that good decisions can still lead to unfavorable results due to luck. It provides practical tools like the Decision Quality Matrix, pre-mortem analysis, and nominal group technique to manage emotional biases and establish accountability systems based on process rather than outcomes. Ultimately, the framework aims to transform pharmaceutical decision-making from intuition-based to evidence-based, improving portfolio performance and resource allocation.