Money Men

In less than 1 hour... the most important number of 2026 drops. At 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the January CPI report. Will inflation finally break below 2.5%... confirming the soft landing? Or will we get another hot surprise?

Here's what most people don't know: 10 out of the last 11 January CPI reports have surprised to the UPSIDE. JPMorgan sees a 42% chance of a hot print. Barclays says there's meaningful upside risk.

Today's Show:

• The January Curse: Why January inflation always runs hot - the annual price reset phenomenon and residual seasonality
• What JPMorgan Is Seeing: 42.5% odds of a hotter print, but limited market reaction if it happens - the fear is priced in
• Inside The Fed's Head: A structurally dovish Fed more likely to save the labor market than fight inflation
• Powell's Swan Song: April could be his last meeting - 47% chance of a final rate cut
• What To Watch: Core services, shelter costs, tariff passthrough, car insurance and healthcare
• The Three Scenarios: Cool (face ripper rally), In-Line (yawn), Hot (contained damage)

Key Numbers:

• 2.5% — Consensus CPI forecast (lowest since May 2025)
• 10 out of 11 — January CPIs that surprised hot
• 42.5% — JPMorgan's odds of a hotter print
• 3.5-3.75% — Current Fed funds rate
• 60 bps — Rate cuts priced for 2026 (2-3 cuts)
• 50% — Odds of first cut in June
• 47% — Odds of cut at Powell's final April meeting

Key Insight:

POSITIONING matters more than PREDICTION. The market is already braced for bad news. A cool print could be the bigger surprise.

Follow Money Men:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

→ X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Intro

Sickening scenarios have now come within reach. That's Michael Burry — the Big Short guy who predicted 2008 — warning that Bitcoin could trigger a collapse where there's "no buyer." Meanwhile, Michael Saylor just said he'll keep buying Bitcoin "every quarter forever." Someone's about to be catastrophically wrong. $54 billion is on the line.

Today's Show:

• Burry's Death Spiral Thesis: The Big Short investor says Strategy faces an "existential crisis" if Bitcoin hits $60K. He warns tokenized metal futures could "collapse into a black hole with no buyers."
• Strategy's Position: 715,000 BTC at $76K average cost. Currently $9K underwater per coin. $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025. MNAV dipping below 1 — the "last resort" trigger.
• Saylor's Response: "If Bitcoin falls 90% for four years, we'll refinance. We'll roll it forward." He expects to buy "every quarter forever."
• Burry's Track Record: Predicted 2008 brilliantly — but since then? Wrong on Tesla (up 700%), wrong on AI (shorted NVDA), wrong on Bitcoin (called it "worse than tulips"). Underperformed S&P by 5-7% annually for a decade.
• What Market Makers Say: Wintermute says we're in a bear market but "not a structural blowup like FTX, Luna, or Three Arrows." Macro-driven, not fraud-driven.
• Whale Activity: 152,000 BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days while 580,000 retail traders got liquidated. Cathie Wood bought $72M during the crash.
• Saylor's 2026 Timeline: Base case $120-140K (60% probability). March: 20 millionth BTC mined. Q4: momentum builds.

Key Numbers:

• $54 billion — Strategy's Bitcoin position value
• 715,000 — Total BTC held by Strategy (3% of all Bitcoin)
• $76,000 — Strategy's average cost per BTC
• $12.4 billion — Strategy's Q4 2025 net loss
• 47% — Bitcoin's crash from October high of $126K
• 70% — Strategy stock decline from all-time high
• 152,000 — BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days

Sources:

• CNBC: Michael Saylor on Strategy's Bitcoin Position
• CNBC: Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000
• CoinDesk: Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Are Unencumbered
• CryptoQuant: Whale Accumulation Data
• Strategy Investor Relations: Q4 2025 Earnings
• Coin Bureau: Strategy MNAV Analysis
• What Bitcoin Did Podcast: Michael Saylor Interview
• Wintermute Research: Crypto Bear Market Analysis
• ARK Invest: Cathie Wood's $72M Crypto Purchase

Practical Takeaways:

• Don't panic sell — every major BTC crash has been followed by new ATHs
• Don't over-leverage — margin calls are destroying traders right now
• Burry being famous doesn't make him right (terrible track record since 2008)
• Saylor being bullish doesn't make him right (massive personal exposure = bias)

Follow Money Men:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

→ X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Intro - Saylor vs Burry: $54B on the Line

Ray Dalio just issued one of the most chilling warnings about money I've ever heard: "There will be no privacy." He's not talking about social media or government surveillance—he's talking about your bank account, every transaction you make, and why central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are coming whether we like it or not.

Today's Show:

• Ray Dalio's CBDC Warning: Why the government will be able to see everything you buy and freeze your accounts with one click
• What Are CBDCs?: Central bank digital currencies explained in plain English
• The Privacy Problem: Why every transaction becomes traceable and controllable
• Stage 5 of Collapse: Where America sits in Dalio's model of civilizations rising and falling
• Civil War Risks: Why Dalio sees real signs of internal conflict today
• How to Protect Yourself: What Dalio says you should do with your money right now

Key Warnings from Dalio:

• CBDCs will eliminate financial privacy
• Government can freeze accounts instantly
• America heading toward "financial heart attack"
• Real signs of civil war today
• Stage 5 of collapse indicators visible now

Sources:

• Tucker Carlson: Ray Dalio Interview (Full Episode)
• Bridgewater Associates
• Ray Dalio's Principles
• Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
• Bank for International Settlements: Central Bank Digital Currencies
• Federal Reserve: Digital Currency

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Intro: Ray Dalio's Warning

One AI announcement just crashed $1 trillion in software stocks. Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Cowork, and Wall Street is calling it "The Anthropic Effect." Today I break down what happened, why SaaS stocks are panicking, and what this means for your portfolio.

Today's Show:

• The Crash: Thomson Reuters -18%, Salesforce -25%, Intuit -31% - all triggered by one announcement
• Claude Opus 4.6: New AI benchmark king, beating GPT-5.2 by 144 Elo points
• Claude Cowork: The $20/month "SaaS killer" that's terrifying traditional software
• The Valuation: Anthropic's 350 billion dollar value (up from 18B in 2023)
• Super Bowl: Anthropic vs OpenAI ad war and who won

Key Numbers:

• $1 trillion wiped from software stocks in one week
• 144 Elo points ahead of GPT-5.2 on key benchmarks
• $350 billion Anthropic valuation (20x increase in 2 years)
• $20/month Claude Cowork vs $75-300/month traditional SaaS
• 95% win rate (38/40 tasks) in blind testing

Sources:

• Anthropic Blog: "Introducing Claude Opus 4.6" (Feb 5, 2026)
• CNBC: "Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.6 as AI moves toward a 'vibe working' era"
• The New Stack: "Anthropic's Opus 4.6 Is a Step Change for the Enterprise"
• DataCamp: "Claude Opus 4.6: Features, Benchmarks, Tests, and More"
• Trending Topics EU: "The Anthropic Effect: Fear of AI Agents Trigger Major SaaS Stock Sell-Off"
• Bloomberg: "Anthropic Plans Employee Tender Offer at $350 Billion Valuation"
• Business Insider: "Anthropic's ad skewering OpenAI was the big winner of the AI Super Bowl"

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - The Trillion Dollar Crash

$50 BILLION dollars wiped out in a single day. A CEO who carries a SWORD told Wall Street his company has ZERO competition. Bitcoin CRASHED 15% in 72 hours. The Dow crossed 50,000 for the FIRST time in history. And Elon Musk announced he's putting AI data centers IN ORBIT around the Earth.

This is the Money Men Sunday Recap for February 2nd through 8th, 2026 — the week markets absolutely lost their minds.

Today's Show:

• Novo Nordisk Collapse: The obesity drug king watched $50B vanish in hours. Their new CEO said "it gets worse from here." Trump's 85% price cuts, Eli Lilly's superior drugs, and compounding pharmacy knockoffs are squeezing them from three directions.
• Palantir's AI Empire: CEO Alex Karp — philosophy PhD, Qi Gong practitioner, sword-carrier — delivered 70% revenue growth and declared "we are N of one." Is that arrogance or the only AI company actually making money?
• Cathie Wood's $1.2M Bitcoin Call: She's predicting a "Goldilocks economy," Tesla at $2,600, and Bitcoin at $1.2 million. But her fund crashed 75% and Zoom never hit $1,500. True believer or broken clock?
• Musk's $1.25 Trillion Moonshot: SpaceX just absorbed xAI to build orbital data centers powered by the sun. A million satellites. Unlimited energy. June IPO. Genius or SolarCity 2.0?

Other News:

• Dow 50,000: Historic milestone — first time ever. Trump celebrated. Markets snapped a 3-week losing streak.
• Bitcoin's Wild Ride: $71K → $60K → $70K in 72 hours. If you're trading it, weeks like this will wreck you.
• The SaaSpocalypse: Anthropic's Claude Cowork announcement wiped $285B from software stocks. Salesforce, Adobe, DocuSign — down 6-8%. AI is eating SaaS.

Key Numbers:

• Novo Nordisk crash: -18% ($50B) in one day
• Wegovy price cut: $1,000/month → $149/month (85% reduction)
• Palantir Q4: $1.41B revenue, 70% YoY growth, 57% margins
• SpaceX + xAI: $1.25 trillion combined valuation
• Dow milestone: 50,000 points
• Bitcoin swing: 15% drop and recovery in 72 hours
• SaaS wipeout: $285 billion erased
• Buffett's cash pile: $381 billion (he can't find anything worth buying)

Sources Referenced:

• CNBC: Novo Nordisk Stock Crashes on 2026 Guidance
• Reuters: Novo Nordisk Issues Bleak 2026 Forecast
• CNBC: Palantir Q4 2025 Earnings Report
• Palantir IR: US Navy $448M Partnership
• CNBC: Cathie Wood on 2026 Outlook
• ARK Big Ideas 2026 Report
• CNBC: SpaceX acquiring xAI ahead of IPO
• TechCrunch: SpaceX acquires xAI
• Electrek: SpaceX bails out xAI (bear case)

What To Watch Next Week:

• Earnings: Disney (streaming struggles?), Salesforce (AI threat acknowledged?), Uber/Lyft (gig economy health)
• CPI Report: Hot inflation kills rate cut hopes. This number moves markets.
• Novo Nordisk: Analyst downgrades incoming? Is this the bottom or just the beginning?
• SaaS Stocks: Friday's bounce — relief rally or dead cat?

Follow Money Men:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

→ X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Intro: The Week Markets Went Insane

$50 BILLION DOLLARS. Gone. In a single trading session.

Yesterday, Novo Nordisk—the company behind Ozempic and Wegovy, the company that basically invented the weight loss drug revolution—watched 18% of its market value disappear in hours.

But here's what makes this story wild. After the crash, their new CEO got in front of investors and said: "People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up."

He told them it gets worse from here.

Today's Show:

• The Crash: $50B wiped out, 18% drop, guidance 10x worse than expected
• The Trump Factor: TrumpRx forced an 85% price cut on Wegovy
• The Competition: Eli Lilly's next-gen drug showing 28.7% weight loss
• The Knockoffs: Compounding pharmacies selling semaglutide for $200 vs $1,000
• The Leadership Shakeup: New CEO, US chief leaving, former CEO back as chairman
• The Denmark Problem: One company = 40% of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange
• Bull vs Bear Case: Volume play or falling knife?

Key Numbers:

• Stock drop: 18% in one day
• 2025 performance: Down 50%
• Guidance: Sales DOWN 5-13% (analysts expected -1.4%)
• Wegovy pill signups: 170,000 in first 4 weeks
• Price cut: $1,000/month → $149/month (85% reduction)
• Eli Lilly next-gen results: 28.7% average weight loss

Sources Referenced:

• CNBC: Novo Nordisk Stock Crashes on 2026 Guidance
• Reuters: Novo Nordisk Issues Bleak 2026 Forecast
• Reuters: Trump Obesity Drug Deal with Novo and Lilly
• Reuters: Lilly's Next-Gen Drug Tops Zepbound in Trials
• Yahoo Finance: Novo Nordisk Shares Tumble 18%
• Euronews: Novo Nordisk Stock Sinks After Bleak Forecast

CEO Quotes (Mike Doustdar):

• "People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up"
• "No matter how well the pill does, the price hit on the existing business trumps the great pill launch"
• "We are creating affordability for millions of patients who simply could not afford it"

Chapters:

• 00:00 - The $50 Billion Crash
• 01:15 - What Is Novo Nordisk?
• 02:30 - The Catastrophic 2026 Guidance
• 03:45 - CEO Says "It Gets Worse"
• 05:00 - The Trump Factor: 85% Price Cut
• 06:30 - Eli Lilly Is Winning
• 08:00 - Compounding Pharmacies
• 09:00 - Leadership Shakeup
• 10:00 - The Denmark Problem
• 11:00 - What Analysts Are Saying
• 12:00 - Bull Case vs Bear Case
• 14:30 - What To Watch
• 15:45 - Final Thoughts

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - The $50 Billion Crash

Palantir just dropped Q4 2025 earnings that made Wall Street jaw drop. 70% revenue growth. 57% operating margins. A billion dollars in US revenue in a single quarter. And CEO Alex Karp went on the earnings call and said: We are N of one.

Translation: No competition.

Is that arrogance? Or is Palantir actually the only AI company that figured out how to make real money from artificial intelligence?

In this episode, we break down everything: the numbers, the eccentric sword-carrying philosopher CEO, why their ontology is a secret weapon, the controversial ICE contracts, and whether the stock is worth buying at 39x forward revenue.

Today's Show:

• The Earnings: $1.41B revenue, 70% YoY growth, 137% US commercial growth
• Who Is Alex Karp: Philosophy PhD, practices Qi Gong, carries a sword, built a $150B company
• Why Palantir Wins: The ontology - their proprietary data model that makes AI actually do things
• Government Contracts: $448M Navy deal, AI drones on battlefields, Pentagon trust
• The Dark Side: ICE surveillance, immigration raids, Rise of the Surveillance State
• The Bear Case: 39x revenue, slowing customer growth, 50% downside risk
• Investment Takeaways: What Palantir tells us about where AI value actually lives

Key Numbers:

• Revenue: $1.41B (+70% YoY)
• US Commercial Growth: 137%
• Operating Margin: 57%
• Free Cash Flow: $791M
• Rule of 40 Score: 127 (anything above 40 is excellent)
• 2026 Guidance: $7.2B (beat expectations by $1B)

Sources Referenced:

• Book: The Philosopher in the Valley by Michael Steinberger
• CNBC: Palantir Q4 2025 Earnings Report
• CNBC: What Analysts Are Saying About Palantir
• Business Insider: Wall Street Reactions to Palantir Earnings
• Palantir IR: US Navy $448M Partnership
• Military.com: Navy Palantir AI Shipbuilding Deal
• Palantir Investor Relations

Alex Karp Quotes:

• We are N of one, and these numbers prove it
• AI will destroy humanity jobs
• The US government demand for our product is greater than we can satisfy

Chapters:

• 00:00 - Intro: The Only AI Company Actually Making Money
• 01:27 - Palantir Blockbuster Q4 2025 Earnings
• 03:17 - Who Is Alex Karp? The Sword-Carrying Philosopher CEO
• 04:55 - Why Palantir Is Winning: The Ontology Secret
• 08:27 - Government Contracts: Navy, AI Drones and Pentagon
• 09:49 - The Dark Side: ICE, Surveillance and Controversy
• 11:21 - The Bear Case: Why PLTR Could Drop 50%
• 12:34 - What It Means for Investors
• 13:46 - Final Thoughts: Arrogance or Truth?

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Introduction

Cathie Wood just predicted a "Goldilocks" economy—5% GDP growth with FALLING inflation. Bitcoin to $1.2 million. Tesla to $2,600.

This is the same investor whose fund crashed 75%. The same person who said Zoom would hit $1,500—it's at $74. So why should anyone listen?

Because she also called Tesla before anyone. Called Bitcoin when banks said it was a scam. Built a $60 billion fund from nothing. We go source-by-source through her January 2026 interviews and ARK's Big Ideas report to break down exactly what she's predicting—and whether any of it makes sense.

What to expect in this episode:

• The Goldilocks Thesis: Why Cathie thinks we're getting 5% GDP growth AND falling inflation at the same time
• Bitcoin to $1.2 Million: The math behind ARK's most controversial prediction and why she calls it "digital gold"
• Tesla's Robotaxi Bet: Why 90% of her $2,600 target comes from self-driving taxis, not cars
• The AI Productivity Boom: Her prediction of 4-6% annual productivity growth (3x the historical average)
• Three Deflationary Forces: Energy, shelter, and China—the factors she says will push prices DOWN
• The Track Record Problem: Zoom, Teladoc, Roku—why her predictions have been disasters
• Cathie vs. The Legends: What Buffett, Dalio, and Druckenmiller are saying that contradicts her view

Key Insights:

• Technology is deflationary; money printing is inflationary—which force wins in 2026?
• Being directionally right is NOT enough—valuation and timing matter
• A 75% drawdown is still a 75% drawdown, no matter how "right" your thesis is
• When Buffett holds $381B in cash, that tells you something about valuations

Sources Referenced:

• CNBC Squawk Box Interview (Jan 16, 2026)
• ARK "In The Know" (Jan 9, 2026)
• ARK Big Ideas 2026 Report
• ARK Daily Trade Disclosures

Follow the Show:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Introduction

Elon Musk just dropped a memo that reads like science fiction. SpaceX has acquired xAI in a deal valued at $1.25 trillion—and his stated goal is to put AI data centers in orbit, powered by the sun.

This is not corporate speak. Musk is talking about harnessing millionths of the sun energy, humanity becoming multi-planetary, and building the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on and off Earth.

We go line-by-line through his announcement—what he is claiming, what he is planning, and whether any of it makes sense. Plus the bear case: is this genius or SolarCity 2.0?

What to expect in this episode:

• The Announcement: Not the next chapter—the next book and what Musk means by that
• The AI Energy Crisis: Why Musk says terrestrial data centers cannot scale without imposing hardship on communities
• The Space Solution: Orbital data centers, 1 million satellites, and unlimited solar power in space
• The 2-3 Year Timeline: Musk claim that space compute will be cheaper than Earth by 2028
• The Numbers: $800B SpaceX + $230B xAI = $1.25T combined, targeting the biggest tech IPO ever
• The Bear Case: Is xAI being bailed out? The SolarCity comparison and what Electrek is saying
• The Tesla Question: $2B investment, conflict of interest lawsuits, and where Musk attention is going
• Vertical Sovereignty: Why one analyst says if you do not own the energy, chips, and rails you are just a tenant
• What It Means For Investors: How to think about the June 2026 IPO

Key Musk Quotes:

• This marks not just the next chapter, but the next book in SpaceX and xAI mission
• Global electricity demand for AI simply cannot be met with terrestrial solutions
• To harness even a millionth of our Sun energy would require over a million times more energy than our civilization currently uses
• Space is called space for a reason
• Within 2-3 years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space

Sources Referenced:

• SpaceX Official Announcement
• CNBC: SpaceX acquiring xAI ahead of IPO
• TechCrunch: SpaceX acquires xAI
• Electrek: SpaceX bails out xAI
• CNN: Musk two most ambitious companies merge

Follow the Show:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Introduction: A Memo Like Science Fiction

In Part 2, we move from Ray Dalio’s history to his mechanics. After the 1982 "Abyss" nearly destroyed his career, Dalio realized he couldn't trust his own brain to make objective decisions. He needed an operating system that could override his ego and his emotions.

This episode is a deep dive into the Life Principles—the logical framework Dalio built to turn himself from a "dumb shit" into the architect of the world’s most successful hedge fund. We explore why most people fail because they are "stuck in their own heads" and how Dalio uses the laws of nature to engineer a life of constant evolution.

What to expect in this episode:

• The Designer vs. The Worker: The life-changing distinction between the version of you that writes the rules and the version of you that executes them.
• The Machine Model: Why you need to stop seeing your life as a series of events and start seeing it as a mechanical system you can repair.
• Hyperrealism: Why "wishing" is the enemy of winning, and how to embrace reality even when it’s brutal.
• The 5-Step Process for Success: Dalio’s clinical loop for getting anything you want—from setting audacious goals to diagnosing your own failures.
• Pain + Reflection = Progress: How to stop running from the "sting" of loss and start using it as the raw data for your next breakthrough.
• First-Order vs. Second-Order Consequences: Why the things that feel "good" in the first 5 minutes are usually the traps that keep you broke for 5 years.
• Firing Yourself: How to objectively identify your own weaknesses and find the "workarounds" that allow you to win without being perfect.
• Evolution as the Greatest Reward: Why the goal isn't just money—it’s the rapid trial-and-error process that moves you toward the "higher level."

Books & Resources Mentioned:

• Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio
• How To Build A Company Where The Best Ideas Win (YouTube)
• The Bridgewater Newsletter
• How The Economic Machine Works (YouTube)

Follow the Show:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis)

Some links above support the show at no extra cost to you.

• (00:00) - Introduction