Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect.

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Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?

(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.

(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?

(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.

Guests:

Presenter: Tim Harford

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early?

No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.

To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts.

From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here.

Presenter: Tim Harford

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?

Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.

“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.

We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.

To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: [email protected]

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.

Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.

“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.

To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: [email protected]

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid.

The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department.

This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths.

But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more.

If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact [email protected]

Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire.

This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?

How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?

We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.

If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: [email protected]

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.

As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.

But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs?

What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?

When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze?

And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.

Presenter: Tim Harford