More or Less

How much could climate change cost the global economy?

That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer.

In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted.

Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem.

Presenter: Tim Harford

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.

(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?

(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.

(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.

Guests:

Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team

Presenter: Tim Harford

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil.

What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.

To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at [email protected]

Presenter: Tim Harford

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.

(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.

(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.

(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.

Guests:

Presenter: Tim Harford

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame?

CONTRIBUTORS

CREDITS

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.

(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.

(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?

(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.

Guests:

Presenter: Tim Harford

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect.

Contributor:

Credits:

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?

(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.

(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?

(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.

Guests:

Presenter: Tim Harford

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early?

No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.

To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts.

From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here.

Presenter: Tim Harford