Whilst the first Presidential TV debate between Trump and Biden this week may put the US election event risk at the forefront of the thinking for investors — we note a high bar for US political uncertainty to weigh on the dollar given how stretched short USD positioning is at present. Given how polls put Biden firmly in the lead, the risk is that the run-in to the Nov 3rd US elections sees a positive repricing of Trump re-election odds. A positive repricing of Trump re-election prospects would be USD supportive (and high-beta FX negative through the channel of weaker CNY) — meaning investors may find limited reasons to add to bearish USD positions ahead of the Nov elections.