UPDATE FOR SEPTEMBER 11, 2026: The fresh August CPI inflation report just dropped this morning! While the exact percentages have updated, the core battle between CPI and PCE remains identical. If you are trying to figure out why the news numbers don't seem to match what you are feeling at the grocery store or what the Federal Reserve is saying about interest rates next week, this video breaks down the exact formula difference you need to know.
Two Inflation Numbers. One Says 2.5%, One Says 3.3%. Both Are Right.
There are two official inflation reports, and for July they disagreed: core CPI came in at 2.5% and core PCE at 3.3%. Same month, same country, both correct. In this video I walk you through what CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE actually measure, which one the Federal Reserve really steers by, and why core CPI is running further below core PCE than at any point since 2000. It comes down to one thing: shelter.
I'm not predicting what the Fed will do or where rates go next. This is about understanding the numbers everyone quotes at you. I recorded this on September 9, 2026, so the figures are from the July reports; the August CPI comes out September 11. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Two inflation numbers, both correct
1:29 CPI: the fixed basket
3:06 Core CPI: food and energy out
4:09 PCE: what's paid on your behalf
5:44 Core PCE
6:27 What the Fed actually targets
8:27 The inversion: deepest since 2000
10:28 July by July
11:46 Why it flipped: shelter
12:13 Home prices and rates right now
13:52 Revisions and the formula
15:34 Recap
17:35 Live show, weekly text and tools
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Recorded September 9, 2026. Market conditions and interest rates can change. This is general education, not a rate quote or financial advice. Debbie Marcoux NMLS 237926. JMJ Financial dba Mortgage Mom Radio NMLS 167867. Equal Housing Lender.