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Murphy's Market Minute | April 17, 2026
The S&P 500 finished the week at a record 7,126, the Nasdaq posted its 13th consecutive winning session — its longest streak since 1992 — and the Russell 2000 also closed at a fresh all-time high. The Dow gained sharply on the week but did not reach record territory. While Q1 earnings have been solid — particularly from large-cap banks — this week's move was driven more by geopolitics than fundamentals.
Progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in oil prices, easing immediate inflation pressure. This was the most important macro development of the week, as energy remains one of the key drivers of inflation expectations.
Economic data continues to show resilience. Jobless claims came in at 207,000, reinforcing a stable labor market. However, consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, highlighting a growing disconnect between strong markets and weaker consumer confidence.
At their last meeting in March, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% and continues to signal one rate cut expected in the second half of 2026. Jerome Powell's term expires in May, with Kevin Warsh widely expected to succeed him — a transition worth monitoring for any potential shift in policy tone.
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By Elliot OmansonThe S&P 500 finished the week at a record 7,126, the Nasdaq posted its 13th consecutive winning session — its longest streak since 1992 — and the Russell 2000 also closed at a fresh all-time high. The Dow gained sharply on the week but did not reach record territory. While Q1 earnings have been solid — particularly from large-cap banks — this week's move was driven more by geopolitics than fundamentals.
Progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in oil prices, easing immediate inflation pressure. This was the most important macro development of the week, as energy remains one of the key drivers of inflation expectations.
Economic data continues to show resilience. Jobless claims came in at 207,000, reinforcing a stable labor market. However, consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, highlighting a growing disconnect between strong markets and weaker consumer confidence.
At their last meeting in March, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% and continues to signal one rate cut expected in the second half of 2026. Jerome Powell's term expires in May, with Kevin Warsh widely expected to succeed him — a transition worth monitoring for any potential shift in policy tone.