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Murphy's Market Minute | February 20, 2026
U.S. stocks are positive for the week with the major indices in the green as of Friday, as investors digested mixed economic data and a notable legal development on trade policy. The Supreme Court struck down broad tariff authority in a ruling this week, reducing the risk of sweeping new trade measures and providing a modest boost to investor sentiment.
On the economic front, fourth-quarter GDP was revised to 1.4% annualized, sharply below the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace and under expectations near 2.5–2.8%, underscoring moderating economic momentum. Inflation data came in firmer than forecast. The PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, above expectations of 0.3%, while Core PCE also increased 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year core rate to 3.0% — still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Persistent inflation continues to complicate the timeline for potential rate cuts.
Labor market data remained solid, with initial jobless claims at 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below expectations and indicative of ongoing employment strength. Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, beating forecasts, and February flash PMIs remained in expansion territory, with manufacturing at 51.2 and services at 52.3, signaling continued, though modest, economic activity.
Taken together, the data reflect an economy that is cooling but not contracting. Markets have responded positively this week as trade uncertainty eased and economic data suggested resilience, though inflation remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.
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By Elliot OmansonU.S. stocks are positive for the week with the major indices in the green as of Friday, as investors digested mixed economic data and a notable legal development on trade policy. The Supreme Court struck down broad tariff authority in a ruling this week, reducing the risk of sweeping new trade measures and providing a modest boost to investor sentiment.
On the economic front, fourth-quarter GDP was revised to 1.4% annualized, sharply below the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace and under expectations near 2.5–2.8%, underscoring moderating economic momentum. Inflation data came in firmer than forecast. The PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, above expectations of 0.3%, while Core PCE also increased 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year core rate to 3.0% — still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Persistent inflation continues to complicate the timeline for potential rate cuts.
Labor market data remained solid, with initial jobless claims at 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below expectations and indicative of ongoing employment strength. Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, beating forecasts, and February flash PMIs remained in expansion territory, with manufacturing at 51.2 and services at 52.3, signaling continued, though modest, economic activity.
Taken together, the data reflect an economy that is cooling but not contracting. Markets have responded positively this week as trade uncertainty eased and economic data suggested resilience, though inflation remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.