Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 A look at the Bank of Japan's September 2026 Money Stock flash, released October 14.

M2 grew 2.0% year on year, unchanged from August and below May's 2.5% peak. M1 slipped to -0.2%, its first negative reading since March, and deposit money slowed to 0.0%.

📈 Meanwhile quasi-money rose 4.7% and broad liquidity L 4.3%, led by pecuniary trusts (+12.0%) and investment trusts (+14.0%).

💡 The mix suggests deposits tilting toward time-type accounts, though preliminary single-month data limit firm conclusions.

⚠️ Next up: the October flash. Watch whether M1 returns to positive territory.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ppLcdYVrJyg

📊 A deep dive into JPMorgan Chase's Q3 2026 results.

Net income was $15.3B (+6% YoY), diluted EPS $5.57 (+10%), managed revenue $50.9B (+8%).

📈 Revenue grew in all three segments: CIB +14%, CCB +9%, AWM +14%.

⚠️ But expenses rose 12%, the overhead ratio hit 54%, and the CET1 ratio fell to 13.9% from 14.2%.

💡 The 28% QoQ drop in net income reflects one-off gains in 2Q26.

Next earnings date, guidance and consensus are not stated in the release.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/oVHDKwBE_5Q

📊 A deep dive into the Bank of Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), September 2026 flash, released Oct 13.

📉 Domestic CGPI fell 0.3% m/m and rose 6.8% y/y, the second straight slowdown from July's 7.7%.

💡 The base effect (Sep 2025 was +0.5% m/m) and lower agricultural prices (-0.42pt contribution) played a role.

⚠️ Import prices dropped 0.2% in yen terms but rose 1.0% in contract currency (+17.9% y/y). The yen-based dip is consistent with USD/JPY at 156.4, down 1.5% m/m.

🔍 Material categories show high annual gains while processing categories lag, pointing to uneven pass-through.

📅 Next release: Thursday, Nov 12 (October flash).

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/PDSiLoLv5qs

📊 Weekly review for Oct 4-11.

🏦 Fed minutes show September's 25bp hike was unanimous at 12-0, and all ECB members backed the move to a 2.50% deposit rate.

📈 Inflation was patchy: Norway's core CPI-ATE hit 3.0% and Brazil's IPCA 4.58%, while euro-area core slowed to 2.4%.

💡 Japan's real wages rose for an eighth straight month; the coincident index fell 1.9 points but the official view stayed 'improving'.

⚠️ The US trade deficit widened to $105.6bn on AI-related imports, and Michigan current conditions fell to 44.7.

Next week: US jobless claims and the Fed's H.4.1, both on Thursday the 15th.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/K4gzF9QD-ZI

📊 A full check of three weekly US releases: DOL jobless claims, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, and the Fed H.4.1 balance sheet.

👷 Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 197,000 (down 2,000 on the week). The four-week average of 198,000 is the lowest in the series shown in the release.

🛢️ WTI rose to $97.89 from $85.23 a week earlier and sits far above $61.65 a year ago, while retail gasoline eased to $4.354.

💰 Fed reserve balances averaged $3.03 trillion, lifted by a lower Treasury General Account.

💡 Labor and liquidity look resilient, while energy costs weigh: a mixed picture.

⚠️ Note the timing gap: the EIA highlights text covers the week ending Sep 11, while the tables show the week ending Oct 2.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4bE2Ai26fGo

📊 The University of Michigan's October 2026 preliminary sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1.

📉 Current conditions dropped 12.2% to 44.7, the lowest in the 24-month series provided.

📈 Expectations edged up to 47.3 from 46.3, and year-ahead views of personal finances and business conditions improved slightly.

⚠️ Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run to 3.5%, both up for a second month and the highest since May, yet the 1-year reading remains below the May 2025 peak of 6.6%.

💡 Final October data arrives on October 23.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Wjdz2b3KRfE

📊 Japan's Ministry of Finance released August 2026 balance of payments flash data.

💡 The current account surplus expanded to ¥4.06 trillion (+¥434bn YoY) even as the trade balance flipped to a ¥688bn deficit.

📈 Strength: Primary income surged to ¥5.13tn on overseas investment returns. Exports rose for a 12th straight month, with semiconductors up 52.3%.

📉 Weakness: Imports jumped 26.7% on oil prices (+40.9% in USD) and a weak yen. Inbound visitors fell 9.6% YoY.

⚠️ A striking ¥15.1tn drop in FX reserves marked the financial account.

We analyze Japan's structural shift from trading nation to investment nation—both sides, no spin.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/x39mXcusxmc

📊 Deep dive into the FOMC minutes (Sept 15-16 meeting, released Oct 8, 2026).

🔺 The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% — by a unanimous 12-0 vote, a stunning shift from July's 9-3 hold.

📈 Unemployment fell to 4.1%, AI investment keeps surprising to the upside, and labor market risks are now judged broadly balanced.

⚠️ Meanwhile headline PCE sits at an estimated 3.8%, and staff pushed the return to 2% inflation back to 2029. Most participants see another hike by year-end.

💱 The minutes explicitly cite the joint US-Japan yen intervention; with the ECB also hiking, the dollar fell despite Fed tightening.

Next meeting: October 27-28. We track the Warsh Fed's hiking cycle.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/aVQWA5dyvCM

📊 Japan's Monthly Labour Survey for August 2026 (flash).

📈 Real wages rose 1.5% YoY, the eighth straight monthly gain since January 2026. Scheduled (base) pay grew a solid 3.8%.

⚠️ But special payments were flat (0.0%), and total cash earnings slowed from 4.3% in July (revised) to 3.8%. Like-for-like (common-establishment) base pay was only 3.1%, and the July flash was revised down.

💡 The wage-price loop continues, yet revisions and composition effects call for caution. Next: August final data on Oct 23, September flash on Nov 6.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/OoQKhwYVedI

📊 The US goods & services deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6B in August 2026 — the largest monthly gap of the year, per Census Bureau & BEA (FT-900).

📈 Imports surged 4.3% to $420.8B, led by capital goods at a record $146.4B. YTD computer imports nearly doubled vs 2025 and semiconductor imports jumped 84% — the AI datacenter buildout is reshaping US trade.

💡 Exports also rose 1.4% to $315.2B, lifted by gold, crude oil and fuel oil. YTD exports are up 11.8%, and the YTD deficit is down 19.9% from 2025.

⚠️ Country mix shift: deficits with Vietnam ($24.0B) and Taiwan ($18.3B) now exceed China ($16.4B).

📅 Next release: Nov 4, 2026. The wider real goods deficit points to a net-export drag on Q3 GDP.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/9TzfNhEjuW4