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Napkin Math Podcast is now live on YouTube.

The episode starts with a life update (Sabba’s new baby) and somehow turns childbirth into actual B2B SaaS lessons. From there, it spirals into whether Peter Thiel is really a billionaire, why Claude feels like another GPT-4 moment, and how vibe coding is accelerating the rise of one-person companies.

It then breaks down Meta’s Manus acquisition, a bootstrapped $1M planks business hiding in plain sight, X’s push into blogs, and finishes with Elon’s ever-expanding list of beefs.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro
00:27 Sabba’s B2B SaaS lessons from childbirth
08:00 Is Peter Thiel a billionaire?
09:57 Claude’s GPT 4 moment
10:49 Vibe Coding Frenzy
14:45 Ralph Wiggum AI agent
19:01 AI vs seat-based SaaS
23:22 Boom of one-person companies
26:11 Meta acquiring Manus
31:07 $1M Secret Planks Business
39:48 Home-reno & logistics startup ideas
43:27 X blogs push, Grok, and Elon’s beefs

Sabba and Charlie are back for a special Christmas episode. A 2-hour deep dive split into two parts.

In the first, the chaps dive into the $100M ARR frenzy across AI startups, break down the Claude Opus 4.5 release, and debate the escalating LLM wars between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. They also discuss Sergey Brin’s return to Google, the opportunity emerging around the ChatGPT App Store, and why prediction markets are starting to compete with traditional media.

In the second, they announce the 2025 awards, sharing their picks for the best product, the best trend, the best distribution startup, and the best comeback story, before closing off with their 2026 predictions.

00:00 Intro – Napkin Math Christmas Special
00:53 Why founders can hate Christmas
01:45 Sabba's baby announcement (and life update)

02:55 $100M ARR Frenzy in AI startups
07:56 Google AI Studio & Unfair Advantage
09:47 Are these AI startups actually profitable?
11:37 When will we see $1B ARR companies?
12:21 Replit’s long-term advantage & Opus 4.5

16:10 LLM Wars (Google vs. ChatGPT vs. Anthropic)
17:33 Google’s vertical AI advantage explained
19:47 Sergey Brin’s return to Google
21:19 Is AI a winner-take-all market?

31:09 ChatGPT App Store opportunity
39:58 What's the hype of Prediction Markets
42:47 Startup opportunities around prediction markets
50:25 2025 Napkin Math Awards (Best product, trend, distribution & comeback)
01:02:27 Why Google now leads AI
01:04:12 Bear case for Google
01:06:29 Comparing Google’s position to Nvidia’s rise
01:08:40 Honorable mention (AI Video’s breakout year)
01:09:30 Why models outpaced products in AI video
01:11:40 What to watch heading into 2026

After a mini hiatus the boys are back with a banger. 5 startup idea frameworks you can use to start the next unicorn or profitable bootstrapped business. Plus, they inadvertently start the Ben Tossell fan club, and talk about making the UK rich again.

• 00:00 Napkin Math - Startup Idea Frameworks
• 01:43 Startup idea framework 1 - copy your competitors
• 06:23 Framework 2 - build an indirect competitor
• 09:02 Framework 3 - build for a growing trend
• 16:18 Framework 4 - build for new regulations
• 19:54 Framework 4 - build an Open Source competitor
• 26:48 Are any frameworks better for bootstrappers?
• 30:20 Do you need in-market experience before building in that market?
• 31:45 Characteristics of successful founders
• 33:43 The end of Claude Code?
• 35:42 The Ben Tossell fan club
• 39:23 Make Britain Rich Again - Forest City

After spending weeks in hospital with a broken leg, Charlie has had plenty of time to think about B2B SaaS lessons for the pod, and he delivers. The chaps also chat about VEED's new CTO hire, their Fabric 1.0 launch and brainstorm existing businesses that could inject AI to get to $100m quickly.

Timestamps:

• 00:00 Intro
• 02:07 B2B SaaS lessons from breaking your leg
• 19:50 Why VEED hired a new CTO
• 25:15 VEED Fabric Launch
• 32:03 Existing companies that could inject AI
• 35:29 Shift to usage based billing
• 39:48 Why courses are hated

Links:

• Napkin Math
• VEED
• Ramen Club
• Cosy
• Ramen Space

Today Sabba and Charlie break down the Figma IPO and speculate on which company will be the next Figma. They question whether the chat interface for AI is outdated, and debate if DeepMind might be the greatest acquisition of all time, plus who’s most likely to win the AGI race. They also dig into the UK’s online safety act, why VPNs are booming, and wrap up with a very cheeky “recording blocker” startup idea.

• 00:00 Intro
• 01:21 Figma IPO
• 10:32 Who will be the next Figma
• 17:25 "Tea app", Uber for X, Tinder for X etc...
• 27:25 Is the chat interface for AI archaic?
• 31:08 Is DeepMind the best acquisition of all time?
• 34:29 Who will win AGI?
• 37:01 UK's online safety act and the business of VPNs
• 45:50 Recording blocker free startup idea

Sabba talks about how he uses ChatGPT, Charlie talks use cases for Claude Code and the duo debate whether the UK is an impossible place  to bootstrap. Sabba also share lessons on hiring top talent early, and dissect Duolingo’s $1billion freemium play (with a  15% churn rate) before comparing it to VEED’s freemium vs free trial approach.

• 00:00 Intro
• 00:28 How a VC-backed founder uses ChatGPT
• 06:52 Use cases of Claude Code
• 13:25 Napkin Math AI Animation
• 16:14 Is the UK impossible to bootstrap?
• 20:34 Hiring great talent early on
• 25:31 Duolingo's $1billion freemium approach with 15% churn
• 36:04 VEEDs approach to freemium vs free trial

The boys are back talking about Loveable's insane growth and $200m raise, the dangers of founder liquidity, plus more AI chat (of course). Charlie turns Sabba into BusinessGuruGPT prompting him with how he'd grow an eSIM business to $1m in a year. All this, and more, in this week's episode of NAPKIN MATH.

Timestamps

• 00:00 Intro
• 00:30 Loveable raises $200m
• 05:58 Jason Lemkin's Replit disaster
• 09:38 Takeaways from Loveable's raise and the future of AI companies
• 15:53 Generative content opportunities
• 18:19 Making £1m from e-sims
• 30:17 Founder liquidity
• 40:14 Focusing on a single growth channel
• 45:25 Are AI influencers important in the future of marketing
• 48:34 Should we be worried about the AI backlash?
• 53:30 The seasonality of SaaS

Sabba and Charlie kick things off with some napkin math on how to make £26k per year in pure profit selling fans, then dive into a the real money maker; an AI automation consultancy. They talk about the rise of the “VEED (or Indie Beers) Mafia,” and discuss JB's Ahrefs-style tool for LLMs. 

• 00:00 Intro
• 00:20 Portable fan Napkin Math
• 09:22 Startup idea: AI automation consultancy
• 15:28 AI for marketing
• 17:40 The VEED Mafia (Indie Beers Mafia)
• 19:41 Ahrefs for LLMs
• 25:16 Why in person events are so important
• 28:20 The new Perplexity browser
• 36:05 Why Charlie is pausing his SaaS

After a hiatus that included a weekend at Glastonbury and a failed recording, the boys are back, and they are on fire. They break down the business of the Glastonbury festival and some new startup ideas around it, they talk about the Figma S1 filing and the insane numbers behind the software platform and Charlie talks about the future of Ramen Space potentially becoming a nation state.

On this episode of Napkin Math, Sabba and Charlie explain why “small bets” are a terrible idea for most founders. They unpack how VEED ranks #1 for “AI video generator” (and other competitive keywords), explore Ben’s idea for a dream analysis app, the surprising business case for astrology, and how AI agents could thrive in markets like Nigeria. Sabba also shares why he believes the global adoption of stablecoins is inevitable.

Timestamps:

• 00:00 Intro
• 00:51 Small bets vs single focus
• 11:03 How VEED ranks number one for highly competitive keywords
• 18:32 Ben's dream analysis app
• 23:48 The business of astrology
• 29:25 AI agent app in developing markets (Nigeria)
• 37:17 The adoption of stable coins globally is inevitable - Sabba
• 41:26 Quick fire round