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CHAPTERS

0:00 - Introduction

4:47 - Idea #1: Focus on the Outliers

8:49 - Idea #2: Platonicity

12:31 - Idea #3: The Anti-Library

15:46 - Idea #4: Scalable and non-scalable professions

22:16 - Idea #5: The Province of Mediocristan

24:34 - Idea #6: The Province of Extremistan

27:17 - Idea #7: The Problem of Induction

30:20 - Idea #8: Black Swans are always relative to knowledge

31:08 - Idea #9: The Round-trip Fallacy

33:12 - Idea #10: The Error of Confirmation (aka THE CONFIRMATION BIAS)

35:43 - Idea #11: The basis for true Self-Confidence

40:48 - Idea #12: The Narrative Fallacy

44:09 - Idea #13: Silent Evidence

48:06 - Idea #14: The Ludic Fallacy

54:32 - Idea #15: Epistemic Arrogance & Epistemic Humility

56:56 - Idea #16: The Fire Hydrant Experiment

1:02:26 - Idea #17: Budget for Uncertainty

1:04:09 - Idea #18: Ditch the 5-year plan

1:06:52 - Idea #19: Maximize the Serendipity around you

1:08:36 - Idea #20: Look for asymmetric outcomes

1:10:21 - Idea #21: Set up your own game

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