As we make our way towards the first Tuesday in November, a highly-watched, always-debated component of American politics is ready to take it’s place center stage: Statistical models.These models, which connect and weight a range of ever-changing data, have replaced the simple “who will win by how many points” projections. And with Senate control both still undetermined and central to our political future, understanding these models is key.And, of course, none of these models is better known or more anticipated than Nate Silver’s.Nate Silver almost single-handedly brought the art and science of political statistical modeling in our cultural mainstream. He is founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight…

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

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I first met Dan Perry in Romania 1990. He was the AP Bureau Chief, and I was freelancing for the summer. There’s no one I’ve met who better understands collectively Israel, the Middle East, and the U.S.
So after the Hamas attack and Israel’s declaration of war, I knew whom to call.
Dan was awoken on Oct. 7 “by rocket fire over central Tel Aviv, with the Iron Dome system zapping the incoming missiles out of the sky, leaving debris to rain down on nearby streets. It is now evening, and air raid sirens continue to wail as volleys arrive from Gaza.”
About Dan: Among other roles, he led the Associated Press coverage of Israel and the Middle East — from Pakistan through north Africa — for much of the 2010s. Today Dan lives in Tel Aviv and writes the excellent Substack “Ask Questions Later”. His columns appear in the Times of Israel and Newsweek, among other places. He appears frequently on the in i24 global television network.

Dan Perry: Israel, Hamas, and The Big Picture

For eight years, Ben Rhodes served as Deputy National Security Advisor to President Obama. 
Now Rhodes has written a book — After the Fall: Being American in the World We've Made — about his personal post-Obama journey that sought to answer a simple question: What happened to the world, America, and himself as the undertow of history pulled us into the currents of nationalism and authoritarianism – and what we should do about it?
As he learned and you’ll hear, there may be simple questions. There are no simple answers.
Ben is the author of the New York Times bestseller The World as It Is, a contributor for NBC News and MSNBC, and co-host of Pod Save the World.
And as mentioned, sign up for a free trial of my daily briefing newsletter: chrisriback.substack.com/CRC

Ben Rhodes: After the Fall

We’re back for a new season!
I also launched my new daily email, Chris Riback’s Newsletter.
6 days a week, I compile and publish the meaningful ideas, trends and events into a daily briefing of what you need to know, and not a word more.
I add engaging videos, tweets, graphs, and more. My goal is to help readers save time and stay smarter. 
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We're Back: New Season... and Some News

This is a special live Zoom edition of Chris Riback’s Conversations, the first in our new series of political book conversations sponsored by Cornell’s Institute of Politics & Global Affairs.
What does it mean for democracy when the President attacks the free press as fake news? How should journalists balance the need to avoid becoming the “opposition party,” as Steve Bannon described them, while also standing up when individual reporters – frequently women, frequently minorities – are publicly ridiculed?
Jonathan Karl is ABC News’ Chief White House Correspondent. Jon’s also President of the White House Correspondents’ Association and author of the new New York Times Best seller: “Front Row at the Trump Show”
As Karl writes: “Our democracy is built on trust…. That’s why I fear President Trump’s war on truth may do lasting damage to American Democracy.”

Jonathan Karl: Front Row at the Trump Show (Live Event)

Chances are, you may not have heard of New Rochelle, NY before about a month ago.
It’s New York’s 7th largest city, located just 30 minutes north of Manhattan. It was founded by refugee Huguenots – French Protestants – who were fleeing religious persecution in France in 1688. During the 1930s, New Rochelle was the wealthiest city per capita in New York state and the third wealthiest in the country.
For listeners of a certain age — or any of you who watch the classic TV shows on YouTube — you’ll also know that New Rochelle is where Rob & Laura Petrie lived in the Dick Van Dyke show.
It has a strong business community and cultural scene. And it’s beautiful. It sits right on the water is known as the Queen City of the New York Sound.
Of course, right now, New Rochelle, NY has become known for something else: One of America’s multiple ground zeros of the coronavirus. Nearly every major media organization has suddenly paid a visit. And if you Google "New Rochelle" now, as you might imagine, nearly every result has something to do with the virus.
And the face of New Rochelle through all of this – the one racing from town meetings to food distribution centers to senior living homes to religious groups to 60 Minutes interviews – is the city’s hometown mayor Noam Bramson.
And I mean hometown – Noam was born in New Rochelle. He grew up there. After leaving for college, he returned. He’s been mayor since 2006. And it’s where he’s now raising his own family.
So how do you run a municipality through a pandemic? And what’s it like to see the place you love – your home – go through this kind of challenge? That’s what we discussed.
Before we begin, let me put my bias on the table right away: I’ve known Noam for nearly 30 years. We met in grad school. He was very smart, unnecessarily modest, and always friendly. As you’ll hear, some things don’t change, even when you’ve had to lead your hometown through a pandemic.
For show notes & my newsletter, go to chrisriback.com.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

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