In episode 3 of The Nudging Financial Behaviour Podcast, we’re looking at uncertainty and how it differs from risk. This discussion is all about known and unknown probabilities. We also unpack two biases – The Gambler’s Fallacy and The Hot-Hand Effect. 

We thought that the best way to really get to grips with these biases was to chat to someone who knows a lot about trading. Our guest is Garth Mackenzie, a prolific trader with plenty of exciting stories to tell about his years working on the markets.

Useful links: 

More about Garth Mackenzie: 

• LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/garth-mackenzie-05115a52/   

Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms by Daniel Ellsberg - https://www.jstor.org/stable/1884324  

Belief in the Law of Small Numbers but Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - https://www.stats.org.uk/statistical-inference/TverskyKahneman1971.pdf  

Be sure to like this episode and hit the subscribe button to get notified when the next episode drops.

You can also read more on our blog: https://www.nudgingfinancialbehaviour.com/navigating-uncertainty/  

Or watch to the video version of this podcast episode: https://youtu.be/jSbbeBHaW8Y 

Special thanks to everyone who has helped put this series together:     

• Our sponsors: IG Markets South Africa