The Perspective

NBA Finals Preview/Prediction

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And Here. We. Are. after all of the uncertainty of there being a restart to the NBA, if the players were going to continue playing after the Bucks decided to not play and the NBA taking a few days off before resuming the season once again; it is time for the NBA Finals. The Lakers, owners of the Western Conference's No. 1 seed and seeking out an NBA-best 17th championship, will face the Miami Heat, a No. 5 seed on a Cinderella run to the Finals after several years out of contention. These playoffs couldn't be ending any better. It almost feels like March Madness. The Lakers may be entering the series as heavy favorites, but the Heat have been the lower seed in each series and won since the playoffs began. They won't back down against anyone.

This marks LeBron James’ 10th Finals appearance and first with the Lakers, who last played for the championship with Kobe Bryant in 2010. It is the Heat’s first Finals appearance since 2014, when LeBron James led them to the last of four straight title shots.

The Lakers won both regular-season meetings between the teams — 95-80 in early November and 113-110 in mid-December —neither were representative of this version of the Heat. Miami was still starting Kendrick Nunn and Meyers Leonard, neither of whom cracked the rotation in the conference finals. The Heat had also not acquired Crowder and Iguodala. Also, neither Herro nor Robinson were playing at the level they are now.

What we do know is that LeBron James & Anthony Davis completely outplayed Jimmy Butler & Bam Adebayo in their two regular season matchups. For Miami to have a chance in this series, this cannot be the case unless they get superhero like play from the likes of Dragic & Herro.

Matchups to watch:

  • Anthony Davis vs. Bam Adebayo
  • LeBron James vs. Jimmy Butler

    • What I will be watching:

    • How will Miami decide to guard the Lakers in this series? They have used different game plans defensively in all three series and were able to execute. The first key for the Heat will be to shrink the floor vs. Lakers similar what we saw the Nuggets do. Shutting down the LeBron-Davis PnR will be priority number one. They were only able to generate 0.9 points per direct possession in the regular season, according to Second Spectrum. Another way Miami can negate the Lakers’ offense will be their switching scheme which will take away some of the off ball actions. This will find Adebayo guarding on the perimeter at times which will level the Heat susceptible to offensive rebounds as Howard/Davis will be attack the glass. It will be imperative for Miami to rebound well as a team. What Miami is effectively able to do better than any other team is run a zone and the Lakers offense has experienced a drop off when going against the zone.
    • Lakers’ shooting - It is known that the Miami Heat are one of the best shooting teams in the league while the Lakers rank towards the bottom. This puts a lot of pressure on the likes of Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Kyle Kuzma to hit shots from the perimeter. One of the keys to breaking Miami's zone is consistently shooting the 3. That responsibility falls on more than just one player, which is why Green, Caldwell-Pope and Kuzma are all being highlighted. They are shooting a combined 36% from 3 and 39% on C&S 3s. If this trio is knocking down the 3-ball, it'll certainly open things up for James and Davis inside.

      • Prediction: Lakers in 6 Games

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      The PerspectiveBy Cody Johnson
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