By Wilson Center Staff

Through the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration has launched a new industrial strategy. Today’s episode of New Security Broadcast highlights a fireside chat at a Wilson Center event between John Podesta, Senior Advisor to the President for Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation, and Duncan Wood, Wilson Center Vice President for Strategy and New Initiatives. Podesta and Wood explore the opportunities provided by the Inflation Reduction Act for the U.S. and its allies. Select Quotes from John Podesta “The IRA fits with our strategy that is embedded in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Chips and Science Act to try to create a better investment environment in the United States. We are open to foreign direct investment, but economies in Asia and in Europe, as well as across the globe were concerned that we were paying the most significant attention to investment in the United States. However, we have maintained dialogue with our key trading partners, and the structure of the law provides benefits to countries, particularly in the critical minerals space.” “Our strategy is to see prosperous industrialization, electrification, and decarbonization of economies across the globe. One of the effects of the bill is its global reach. BCG estimated that it would reduce the cost of clean energy deployment by 25 percent globally, which is a global public good. With the U.S. making that investment and creating that cycle of investment and innovation, it brings the “green premium,” which Bill Gates emphasizes, down even further. We are seeing that solar is the cheapest new form of electricity production around the globe today. And we are going further across a range of technologies that will be crucial for hitting net zero emissions targets, such as green hydrogen and carbon capture…The President makes no apologies for using U.S. tax dollars to support investments in the United States.”  “We need to adjust our investment strategies and our sustainable development strategies in order to meet that goal [net zero]. It's not the only thing we need to do, we still have a huge finance challenge, particularly with developing economies. And that will be a topic of focus and conversation at the upcoming COP. This is not just a matter of developing the best technology, for we also have to be able to finance their deployment. And, the United States has a deep responsibility to make sure it's doing its part. The President's nomination of Ajay Banga is a step in the right direction.” “We have to show up…It wasn’t a lack of knowledge, but a lack of long-term strategy, that illuminated what the dependence [on China] would be like. In Europe, North America, and Asia, there is a sense that this is an intolerable alliance. China will continue to be part of the global economy, the country leads in electric vehicles etc., but, as the Ukraine war taught us, we can’t be overly dependent on one country. So, what we need to do is reduce that dependency by developing new partnerships. In Europe and the U.S., it is critical to ensure that we pay attention to labor protection, human rights violations, and transparency…The mission remains sustainable development, but includes creating pathways for clean energy development that work simultaneously on the climate problem.” Photo Credit: John Podesta speaking at a recent Wilson Center event, titled The Inflation Reduction Act and the Green Deal Industrial Plan: Transatlantic Cooperation on Critical Minerals, courtesy of the Wilson Center.

To better understand the complex dynamics of global hunger and the urgent need for more collective action to address this humanitarian crisis, Chase Sova, Senior Director of Public Policy and Research at World Food Program USA, and his colleagues recently launched a new report, "Dangerously Hungry." In today’s episode of New Security Broadcast, ECSP Program Coordinator and Communications Specialist, Abegail Anderson, speaks with Sova about the report's analysis on the current state of global hunger and its devastating impacts on vulnerable populations. The report showcases how food insecurity, met with external motivators, creates a greater likelihood for food-related instability and conflict. Sova emphasizes the importance of investing in sustainable agriculture, empowering marginalized populations, and building resilience for the most vulnerable communities. The conversation serves as an important and timely reminder that food insecurity is not only a byproduct of conflict and global instability, but also a driver of it, calling for a cross-sectoral approach to address these challenges and ensure food security for all. Select Quotes

"Temperature and precipitation changes, desertification—all these climate-related impacts tend to impact food systems first, and so a lot of the climate change and security literature runs through food systems, and we’ve tried to capture as much of that as we can in the Dangerously Hungry report. There is also an increase in peer reviewed work looking at the individual motivations for someone to join a rebel cause or an extremist organization, and a lot of that has to do with economic benefits and exploitations that happen when someone is not able to feed their family."

"Food insecurity alone is simply never a driver of instability in and of itself; it drives people to desperation, it helps amplify grievances in a country, and it does poke holes in the challenges of governance. It is not as if hungry people are always violent, and violent people are always hungry. It is important to note that usually it is some combination of drivers and individual motivators, [such as] climate change, economic shocks, and resource conflict. For that stew of food instability to occur, there have been those individual motivators."

"In the desperation space, typically we are referring to the opportunity cost thesis. This occurs where incomes are low, poverty is high, and the expected return from fighting outweighs the benefits of traditional economic activity. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the better examples of this, where Al-Shabab, Boko Haram, and Islamic State are tapping into people’s deep desperation, and that calculus of someone engaging in violent extremism or joining one of these groups becomes obvious through the opportunity cost thesis."

"Oftentimes, it is the government’s failure to respond to food insecurity that erodes trust between a government and people. It is this failure to intervene because of a lack of resources or a lack of political motivation that is exploited by extremist organizations. They will establish their own parallel social protection system as an alternative to the state, and they will offer their own forms of informal justice, which tend to happen in rural areas that are distant from the police arm of the state."

"Apart from urbanization, we need to figure out ways to marry international humanitarian assistance with longer-term agricultural development work. We have got to be investing more in those transitions in places that are recovering from conflict and in places we are trying to prevent from falling into conflict. There has to be a concerted effort in that space, and that is something we are going to spend more time thinking about going forward. As for areas for continued research: urbanization, conflict sensitivity programming, linking humanitarian and development assistance. And we need more on international human rights and humanitarian law in order to come up with specific sanctions to hold people accountable."

Sources: World Food Program USA

Photo Credit: Cover of the World Food Programme USA report, "Dangerously Hungry," courtesy of WFP USA.

Today's geopolitical climate, paired with the accelerating energy transition, means it is more important than ever to coordinate on international infrastructure investments. This episode of the New Security Broadcast features a recent Wilson Center panel discussion with Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security. Moderated by Mark Kennedy, Director of the Wilson Center's Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition, and Wilson Center Global Fellow Sharon Burke, the conversation explores what U.S. cooperation—with both developed and developing countries—should look like to ensure that the unfolding technology and energy revolutions contribute to diplomacy and benefit all countries. 

Select Quotes

"We need to make sure that as we are going through a revolution in energy and a revolution in technology, everyone around the world gets to benefit from it and rises at the same time, and that the supply chains for those revolutions are diversified and secure."

“We want there to be multiple hubs of production of critical minerals all the way to refining and the manufacturing...We cannot have a monopoly and a dominant position in the energy sector as we're building a new one, just to go through the same problems that we had and the same national security risks that we had in the 20th century. So what do we do about it? We have to invest across the board...We shouldn't come to countries and say, work with our companies or work with us just because it's us. We should do it because we have a better offer for them."

"We have to have reform the international institutions that provide finance, because that is going to help us unlock the private capital that needs to come...If we can de-risk those investments and if we can provide support so that [the private sector is] not afraid of all three of the ESG components, and we do this through multilateral development banks, through governmental export and financial support institutions, then we can bring [private capital] along with us...That’s one area where we can collaborate.”

Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kostiantyn Krynytskyi, Head of Energy at Ecoaction, and his colleagues, have been tracking the ongoing environmental damage caused by Russia’s aggression. In today’s episode of New Security Broadcast, ECSP Director Lauren Risi speaks with Krynytskyi to discuss how Ecoaction, the largest environmental NGO in Ukraine, is mapping out the environmental destruction caused by the war and working to develop a green post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Krynytskyi shares how the war has impacted Ecoaction’s priorities and shifted its approach to address short-term energy needs in Ukraine while safeguarding a secure and sustainable energy future. Select Quotes “We started advocating with our European partners for the Ukrainian electricity system to be connected to the European system. The Ukrainian energy system was preparing itself to be disconnected from the Russian one and connected to the European system in 2023. In 2022, there were supposed to be two pilot periods in winter and in summer where our energy system disconnected from Russia and then it should have connected again. This first disconnection occurred seven hours before the invasion. When the Russian army started marching on Kyiv and other cities, the electricity system was neither connected to the European system nor the Russian one … [and] it was a huge strain on the energy system.” “We advocate for the greening of emergency aid [to] diversify, give us generators, but also solar panels, heat pumps, and wind power. The war has heightened the conversation around renewables, as you can imagine, for years we have been advocating for a switch to a decentralized generation with renewables on the community level … But climate change is not the first priority, so now the focus is on energy security and the resilience of communities.” “Ukrainians currently have a strange and horrible collective experience of the targeted attacks on our energy infrastructure, and now people understand the value of [decentralized generation]. The term decentralized generation has become more mainstream, our President, Zelensky uses it, as well as the Minister of Energy … and we highlight that [it should be] based on renewables. Our main message is it doesn’t make sense to plan this transition for after the war, we need to start doing the groundwork so when the war ends, we already have projects, ideas, concepts, and strategies so it can be implemented quickly…Renewables can help now, and renewables will help in the future because a decentralized system is much harder to destroy.”

Photo Credit: Kostiantyn Krynytskyi speaking at the 2023 D.C. Environmental Film Festival – Ukrainian Environmental Documentary Showcase, Photos (c) Bruce Guthrie.

In today’s episode of New Security Broadcast, Sarah Barnes, Project Director for the Wilson Center’s Maternal Health Initiative Project Director met with Bridget Kelly, Director of Research for Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights at Population Institute to discuss the launch of Population Institute’s new report: Connecting the Dots, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights as Prerequisites for Global Gender Equality and Empowerment. On the episode Kelly, lead author of the Connecting the Dots report, shares findings from the report on the importance of the Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR) agenda, how SRHR leads to gender equality, the power of and need for increased U.S. investment, and policy recommendations to fully realize the SRHR agenda and improve gender equality and empowerment.   Selected Quotes: Bridget Kelly 1) The U.S. plays such an important role in the global goal to achieve gender equality as the U.S. is the largest funder and implementer of global health assistance worldwide. But what U.S. policymakers often fail to recognize is that these gender objectives are directly impacted by the availability and accessibility of comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services. 2) Why are SRHR important to achieve gender equality and empowerment? Evidence shows us that girls' education, a top gender priority, and SRHR have a mutually reinforcing relationship. Early marriage and unintended pregnancy can both be a cause of and a reason as to why girls are out of school. Of the 261 million adolescent girls age 15 to 19 living in the global South, an estimated 32 million are sexually active and do not want to have a child in the next two years. Yet, 14 million of these adolescent girls have an unmet need for modern contraception and are thus at an elevated risk of unintended pregnancy. So, the barriers to accessing sexual and reproductive health services puts the U.S. commitment to girls’ education at risk. 3) Improved access to family planning services is linked with a higher labor force participation for women. We also know that reproductive health is a critical element to making space for women to meaningfully contribute to peace and security efforts, not only because they themselves are affected by these outcomes, but also because they are more often able to come to lasting solutions compared to their male counterparts.

4) In order to create a more enabling environment for sexual and reproductive health and rights, Congress would need to pass the Global HER Act, which would permanently repeal the Global Gag Rule. The Global Gag Rule, when invoked, prevents foreign organizations receiving U.S. global health assistance from providing information, referrals, or services for legal abortion. Another Act that Congress would need to pass is the Abortion is Healthcare Everywhere Act, which would repeal the Helms Amendment. Now, the Helms Amendment prohibits U.S. foreign assistance from being used for the performance of abortion as a method of family planning. There would also need to be modifications to the Kemp-Kasten Amendment to ensure that U.S. funds are not wrongfully withheld from UNFPA.

5) Now is a really opportune time to invest as the world population grows… Today there are about 1.8 billion people between the ages of 10 to 24. That is the largest generation of youth in history and close to 90% of this generation lives in the global South. And, these numbers of individuals are reproductive age are projected to grow. So, what these figures really highlight is just how critically important it is to increase U.S. foreign assistance for global sexual and reproductive health and rights in order to ensure that efforts do not fail to keep pace with the needs of this generation.

In today’s episode of the New Security Broadcast, ECSP’s Claire Doyle partnered with Elsa Barron at the Center for Climate and Security for a conversation with two young leaders who are working to tackle climate change and build peace: Christianne Zakour and Hassan Mowlid Yasin. Christianne is a volunteer with UNEP’s Major Group for Children and Youth and Hassan is co-founder of the Somali Greenpeace Association. On the episode, Christianne and Hassan share about the climate, equity, and conflict issues that motivate their work and describe how they think we can make progress towards a livable future for all.  

Select Quotes:

Christianne Zakour:“We coordinated the Stockholm+50 Youth Task Force…We were able to get together a good number of people—fifty-something young people came together to create a youth handbook, a policy paper, and the timeline of youth activity going back to the 1970s that was supporting the Stockholm+50 conference in June last year.”

“I think there needs to be enabling environments. Within the Latin America and Caribbean region, we have an agreement called the Escazu Agreement…It stands for access to public information, access to justice, and defenders of the environment. Many countries have not signed on at this point, including my own Trinidad and Tobago. But it has gone into effect now, as of either [yesterday] or the day before. And I think it so succinctly sums up the areas that we need to work on. I think we could be much closer to peace building in the region if the other countries signed on.”

Hassan Mowlid Yasin: “In 2018, the frequent floods and drought that occurred in Somalia led millions of people to be displaced, and others to lose their properties. Some people included my closest relatives who used to live in rural areas and who have a pastoralist background. They depended on the products of their animals. During this drought, most of those animals died, and my closest relatives were no longer able to make a living. So in 2019, thinking, ‘what actually can we do about this?’ [I formed] an organization that speaks for the people of Somalia, for the grassroots communities—not in the sense of a humanitarian response, but [in terms of] how they can become really resilient and adaptable to climate change.”

“When we go to the grassroots level, where farming occurs, we listen to them. And when we listen to them, they tell us the solutions they have, which are affordable to implement. It's through these solutions that we bring [ideas] to international forums. We tell [the international community], ‘you don't need to bring your solutions on the ground, the people have the solutions. Can you finance them, so that they can implement their solutions?’”

It is fully within our power to guarantee a healthy ocean and protect it for the future, says Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry in today’s episode of the New Security Broadcast. Kerry spoke at a recent Wilson Center event hosted in partnership with the Embassy of Panama to spotlight the 8th Our Oceans Conference, scheduled to take place in March in Panama. In his remarks, Kerry emphasized the vital role the ocean plays in supporting global food security and economic prosperity as well as the imperative to take action to protect the ocean from climate change.  Select Quotes:  "[The ocean has] played a huge, central role in the lives of people all around the planet, many of whom are part of the 500-billion-dollar industry that depends on the ocean for food production, for protein, for life itself…but the fact is that ninety percent of all the heating of the planet from global climate change is subsumed into the ocean and the ocean is warming."  "In our country the link between climate and oceans is becoming indelibly imprinted in people's minds. You cannot solve the problem of the oceans—i.e., bad emissions dropping into the ocean and changing the chemistry of the ocean—you can't change that if you don't deal with the climate crisis." "The United States has announced three new bilateral work streams to facilitate green shipping corridors within the Republic of Korea Canada and the United Kingdom. If shipping were a nation state it would be the eighth largest emitter on the planet so we have an imperative to move. I'm really proud to say that it was at the Our Oceans Conferences that we first started focusing in on shipping practices, and now as a result of that we are seeing the largest container shippers in the world 65 percent of the new ships ordered are ordered with dual fuel propulsion systems and over a hundred ships have been ordered that are now going to be zero emissions. That came out of the oceans conference."

This week’s episode of the New Security Broadcast explores Invisible Threads: Addressing the Root Causes of Migration from Guatemala by Investing in Women and Girls—a new report from the Population Institute. “We feel like it's really important to highlight how the lives of women and girls and other marginalized groups are really central to a lot of the issues that are at the root causes of migration from the region,” says Kathleen Mogelgaard, President and CEO of the Population Institute. In this episode, Mogelgaard lays out the report’s findings and recommendations with two fellow contributors: Aracely Martínez Rodas, Director of the Master in Development at the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, and Dr. J. Joseph Speidel, Professor Emeritus at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.  In recent years, a growing proportion of migrants who arrive at the U.S. border come from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. Mogelgaard notes that this surge of migrants has captured political attention in the United States, and one of the most important responses has been the release of the Root Causes Strategy by the Biden-Harris Administration. The Root Causes Strategy illustrates dynamic, complex, and interrelated drivers of migration, including economic insecurity, governance, climate change and environmental degradation, and crime and violence. To gain greater perspective on the regional challenges, the Population Institute report examines how the root causes in the White House strategy play out in one nation: Guatemala.  For Guatemala, one of the main causes of internal migration is the search for employment or higher income, says Aracely Martínez Rodas. Guatemala has the largest economy in Central America, and is considered an upper middle income country. However, half the population lives in poverty. Why is this so? Rodas identifies four structural factors in Guatemala that influence migration trends: 1) The impact of neoliberal policies implemented in the 1980s and 1990s that weakened the state; 2) Violence and structural racism have influenced the state’s ability to provide basic services, security, and living conditions that ensure quality of life; 3) The creation of gaps between middle income populations and low income populations, which often do not receive the same services or experience the same infrastructure, and; 4) A historical migration flux that has strengthened and expanded migration networks, as well as links between family, friends, and communities in Guatemala and in desired destinations.  Rodas highlights that these historical migratory fluxes and networks are notable because they create a “migrant imaginary.” With the influences of both remittances and digital technology, information about the benefits of migration are easily shared. Thus, the migrant imaginary plays an important part in how people decide to move, she continues, observing that “it's impossible to prevent.” For men, in particular, migration can be considered a rite of passage. The possibilities of making progress in one’s life offered by leaving outweigh the risks this journey may bring. “Nothing compares to the attraction of migration,” she says. Connecting Guatemala’s migration trends to its demographic profile reveals that the country is on a trajectory to what demographers consider a “stable population.” Dr. Speidel observed that in 1970, there were 5 million people living in Guatemala. Today it's 17.8 million. “The future might bring as many as 25 million in 2050 or maybe even 40 million in 2100,” Speidel says. Guatemala’s considerable progress in its family planning programming has also been effective, with the country’s total fertility rate (the average number of children each woman will have) reduced from about 5 in 1995 to 2.4 today. “If we get down to that magic number 2.1, then essentially, we're going to have a stable population,” says Speidel.  Given this demographic profile, the report notes that education is one critical investment towards addressing the root causes of migration. Half of Guatemala’s population is under the age of 22, and Speidel says that education is “sort of the ticket out to a modern world.” Mogelgaard says that an integrated approach to education that includes family planning and reproductive health services can represent opportunities to better understand how the status of women and girls connects to the root causes of migration. But what about the role of boys in this process? Rodas pointed out that conservative lobbies and religious organizations in Guatemala play a strong role in preventing sexual and reproductive health services from being available, and that they continue to bring about a “machista perspective,” where the view is to control women’s bodies. With this continuing influence on the education of boys, says Rodas, they will grow up in the same context of violence and attempts to control women. If women are more empowered, there inevitably will be conflict. This challenge is why NGOs, for example, need to work alongside religious sectors. If we forget about them, observes Rodas, we will be basically doing nothing.  Mogelgaard hopes that the Invisible Threads report and the conversations it will instigate will not only contribute to the discussion around the U.S. response to the root causes of migration, but also shape the investments that could be made right now. She says that such investments “will help to build a more robust human rights-based, gender-responsive approach to this comprehensive framework on addressing the root causes of migration from the region.”

The war in Ukraine is not only displacing millions, straining the economy, and ravaging infrastructure. It’s also creating a mounting health crisis. In this week’s New Security Broadcast, ECSP’s Director Lauren Risi hears from Ambassador Daniel Speckhard and Dr. Mariia Dolynska about the health impacts created by the war in Ukraine and what is still needed to strengthen the health system—as well as what one NGO is doing to deliver healthcare in the embattled nation.  Millions Displaced and an Economy Under Strain  Ambassador Speckhard, a former U.S. Ambassador to Greece and Belarus who is now president and CEO of the global NGO Corus International, says that what stood out to him on his recent visit to Ukraine was the sheer magnitude of suffering. “Fifteen million people have been displaced—about 7 million have moved outside the country, but there's still 7 million people who are trying to find other places within the country,” he says. “And most of those people had to leave without really anything but what they could carry.” Some Ukrainians fled west within the country to escape the war, only to face continued threats as Russians expand their attacks.  As the war stretches on, Ukraine is experiencing a humanitarian crisis that encompasses security, economy, and health. The country is confronting economic collapse, and at least 15 million need humanitarian assistance. One in three Ukrainians is reportedly food insecure. The elderly and those with disabilities have been particularly vulnerable, says Speckhard, given Ukraine’s age structure and the hamstrung health system. Health Crises amid a Frayed System of Care The war’s impact on health is manifold, suggests Dr. Dolynska, the medical director of the NGO Infection Control in Ukraine. She explains that severe health issues like coronary heart disease and tuberculosis are going undetected, the country’s already subpar waste management has gotten even worse, and unreliable power supplies pose a central challenge to healthcare delivery. Risi points out that that the war’s environmental damages—like polluted air and drinking water—are creating health risks too. Yet Dolynska and Speckhard also stress an additional—and underappreciated—dimension to the crisis: mental health. The untold violence and broader humanitarian consequences of the conflict have taken a huge toll on the mental wellbeing of Ukrainians. “It looks like every Ukrainian survivor will have some more or less severe psychological trauma,” says Dolynska.  Speckhard recalls hearing about children’s trauma in particular during his visit to Ukraine: “Mothers were telling me how their children would still startle whenever a ball bounced—even months later they just are not feeling safe.” And those responding to the crisis, whether they be primary healthcare workers or emergency responders, are also at high risk of trauma themselves.  Extending the Focus and Reach of Health Services In response to this multidimensional health emergency, Dolynska and her team at Infection Control in Ukraine are working bravely on the front lines to support primary healthcare workers across the country. The new focus represents a shift for the NGO, which worked more narrowly on infection prevention prior to the conflict.  With help from Corus International, Infection Control in Ukraine is filling a critical healthcare gap for the Ukrainians it serves in rural areas, where healthcare facilities don’t have adequate capacities or their services have been interrupted. Dolynska says that her NGO is deploying mobile teams of experts in specialties like cardiology and psychology and offer a combination of in-person and remote care—though internet connectivity has sometimes limited delivery. They also have a mobile clinic.  

  “We're trying to reach the most remote areas where people have limited access to large clinical centers,” explains Dolynska. “[We] provide them screening for the most common health conditions, infectious and non-infectious, and also importantly, provide psychological support, which is quite new and quite uncommon for Ukraine.” Infection Control in Ukraine also works to ensure that their own staff and service providers are also receiving psychological care.  Building Solutions and Looking Beyond Ukraine  Dolynska and Speckhard also share their perspectives on the key messages that listeners should take away regarding the war’s impacts, especially in the health sector.  When developing interventions in Ukraine and elsewhere, Speckhard says international actors must avoid duplication and ensure local involvement. “If we create those parallel structures, we're actually going to be duplicative and not building and strengthening the resilience and capacity of existing structures.” He adds that donors also need to heed this advice by giving to organizations that engage on the ground and prioritize capacity building—like Infection Control in Ukraine. Consistent funding for these efforts, as opposed to one-off donations, is key: “This is a multiyear challenge for this country. If we don't see it as a multiyear challenge, you'll win the battle [but] you'll lose the war.” Dolynska sees a need for the international community to focus on the need for basic infrastructure and reliable electricity supply in Ukraine in the months ahead. “You can do nothing with even advanced specialists and advanced equipment if you do not have necessary basic water supplies, electricity and heating,” she observes, adding that improving clinical services and health infrastructure should go hand-in-hand.  Ukrainians will need time to rebuild health systems and other infrastructure.  Speckhard says that this process will be slow even when the conflict is finally over and Ukraine can build back more surely and securely. He warns that this drawn-out recovery process could erode unity in the country if Ukrainians start blaming their own government, not the aggressors, for a lack of clean water, electricity, or heat—as he has seen in other countries. Ukrainians should remember that Russia is ultimately to blame for the damage, and Speckhard calls on the EU to bolster Ukraine’s political resilience by “supporting [its] aspirations for a European future.” Addressing the impacts of the war in Ukraine also means looking beyond the war-torn country. “The situation has pushed another 71 million people into poverty through cost-of-living increases, with about 50 million people in the world now facing emergency levels of starvation,” says Speckhard. There is growing recognition that the impacts of the war—including impacts on health—are not confined to Ukraine alone. Moving forward, international actors must continue to both watch out for—and tackle—these global shock waves.

Photo Credit: Dr. Mariia Dolynska and Amb. Daniel Speckhard tour a Corus-supported medical site in Ukraine, courtesy of Corus International.

“Things that we used to think were 20 or 30 years into the future are in fact happening today…  Climate change is noticeably changing the extent, the severity, and the frequency of these kinds of events.” This stark assessment from Jonathan Pershing, Program Director of Environment at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, is at the center of a discussion of progress made and needed for international climate commitments, the role of critical minerals in the green energy transition, and climate-related migration trends with ECSP Senior Fellow Sherri Goodman and ECSP Program Associate Amanda King in this week’s episode of New Security Broadcast. Pershing brings a wealth of perspective to the conversation, drawing on his roles formally supporting Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, and serving both as a Special Envoy for Climate Change at the U.S. Department of State and lead U.S. negotiator to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.   As the world is currently tuning in to the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Pershing noted that the year since COP 26 occurred in Glasgow “really feels like a bit of a tipping point in the scale.” One notable yardstick can be found in a comparison of the scales of global security dimensions and refugee crises occurring over the past year. While about 5 million people have been displaced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and under 10 million compelled to move because of the ongoing conflict in Syria, he continued, climate catastrophe has displaced nearly 30 million people in Pakistan alone.  “One event, short term,” Pershing said. Against this backdrop, Pershing observed that a key problem facing COP27 attendees is that “people have not been able to make as much progress as we'd like to have made.” Implementation is going to be hard, he said. “We know we've got the money now at the table, but how do you carry it forward?” A central point of contention at this year’s conference is the long-standing commitment that the developed world would help the developing world transition to renewables. Pershing identified China as a major player in the global transition to renewable energy. “If we look at the total global development of renewable energy,” he said, “and divide up the world into two parts—one part is China.” Indeed, China’s slice of that pie “is as big if not bigger than the rest of the world combined in terms of its installation of new renewable capacity.”  Pershing considered that the world is not up to the scale needed for the coming decades in terms of obtaining the materials necessary for this energy transition. In examining the U.S. role in the renewable energy transition, for example, he noted that the U.S. has been historically reluctant to create the new facilities required for the essential minerals to make such a transition. Pershing also said that while the U.S. has a share in global mines, it is only a piece of the total amount. If the U.S. wants to build out its capacity for these resources, it will take a global network.  While the energy transition and mining for critical minerals can be a point of conflict, Pershing added that it may also be a possible point of cooperation between the U.S. and China. But what would such partnership look like? “It could occur in places where it doesn't conflict with the underlying security tensions between the countries,” Pershing said, “but yet offers a real opportunity to transition to the future that we must have.” This common ground might include places where policy is central, and where information could be exchanged about creating more efficient and environmentally-sound mining operations. The Democratic Republic of Congo is one place suggested by Pershing as a nation offering the U.S. and China a chance to work together to minimize deforestation as global networks seek growing access to minerals.  Pershing concluded by offering the Global Methane Pledge as an example of the significant movement on climate change that might be realized via international climate commitments. Of the many flavors of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change, the dominant challenge is carbon dioxide, but the second most prominent contributor is methane. Yet for much of the history of climate negotiations, the dynamics of methane were underplayed. Pershing pointed to the hope offered by the growing number of countries joining the Global Methane Pledge, and pushing to realize the many near-term preventative measures that can be accomplished if the world works on reducing methane emissions. The pledge itself, he said, “could be the kind of model that helps shape some of the answers, not just to methane, but to carbon dioxide, and the other greenhouse gases.”  Sources: Global Methane Pledge