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New Zealand votes, Brexit fishing woes, China bans Australian coal (maybe), supply chain resilience, and vaccine geopolitics
This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk New Zealand politics. With Jacinda Ardern commanding a significant lead in the polls, it looks certain that NZ Labour will win at this Saturday's 17 October poll. It looks like New Zealanders will reward Ardern a second term (possibly in coalition with the Greens) for her efforts in guiding New Zealand relatively unscathed through the Covid-19 pandemic and her empathetic leadership in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre. New Zealand's economy, like the rest of the world's, is heading for a deep recession. With New Zealand's borders locked down, Ardern will need to navigate a Covid-normal path with the prospect of no vaccine in sight for the foreseeable future. Tough times ahead.
The Brexit talks conclude this week, with the European Council meeting on Thursday 15 October. Talks over fishing continue to flounder, with both sides putting up red herrings.... and on the puns go. Boris Johnson is still up for a No-Deal Brexit, but chances are a deal will be done to give French fishermen and women some of the British catch.
Meanwhile Australia and the UK concluded their first round of talks (albeit virtually) for a Free Trade Agreement. The prospects are good for a high quality agreement: expect outcomes of agricultural goods, food and drink, technology, telecommunications, and financial services. Now, Australia just needs to reopen its borders...
Rumour has it that Chinese steel mills have banned imports of Australian coal. It's a bit of an own goal if true given that around 40% of total coal imports to China are from Australia, but could reflect a further decline in the bilateral relationship. It begs the question: how low can we go?
Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg made some major announcements on supply chain resilience and sovereign manufacturing capability in last week's Federal Budget. A$1.3 billion will go towards a “Modern Manufacturing Strategy” designed to assist Australian manufacturers in six priority areas. Another A$107.2 million in funding will go to the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative designed to address key supply chain concerns highlighted by COVID-19 in areas like health and medical products, food and food services, and chemical and plastics. Picking winners is so much fun!
Finally, vaccine geopolitics continues apace. China has now joined the WHO's COVAX initiative to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine throughout the world (if we ever get one), leaving the United States the only country not to participate. 10 vaccines are undergoing final stage III trials. The US will stick with its "Operation Warp Speed" plan to approve a US vaccine in November and produce 700 million doses by April 2021. It's a geopolitical race to the finish line with the winner securing early herd immunity, an open economy and society, plus huge soft power benefits to boot. It's Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong all over again!
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By Tenjin ConsultingThis week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk New Zealand politics. With Jacinda Ardern commanding a significant lead in the polls, it looks certain that NZ Labour will win at this Saturday's 17 October poll. It looks like New Zealanders will reward Ardern a second term (possibly in coalition with the Greens) for her efforts in guiding New Zealand relatively unscathed through the Covid-19 pandemic and her empathetic leadership in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre. New Zealand's economy, like the rest of the world's, is heading for a deep recession. With New Zealand's borders locked down, Ardern will need to navigate a Covid-normal path with the prospect of no vaccine in sight for the foreseeable future. Tough times ahead.
The Brexit talks conclude this week, with the European Council meeting on Thursday 15 October. Talks over fishing continue to flounder, with both sides putting up red herrings.... and on the puns go. Boris Johnson is still up for a No-Deal Brexit, but chances are a deal will be done to give French fishermen and women some of the British catch.
Meanwhile Australia and the UK concluded their first round of talks (albeit virtually) for a Free Trade Agreement. The prospects are good for a high quality agreement: expect outcomes of agricultural goods, food and drink, technology, telecommunications, and financial services. Now, Australia just needs to reopen its borders...
Rumour has it that Chinese steel mills have banned imports of Australian coal. It's a bit of an own goal if true given that around 40% of total coal imports to China are from Australia, but could reflect a further decline in the bilateral relationship. It begs the question: how low can we go?
Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg made some major announcements on supply chain resilience and sovereign manufacturing capability in last week's Federal Budget. A$1.3 billion will go towards a “Modern Manufacturing Strategy” designed to assist Australian manufacturers in six priority areas. Another A$107.2 million in funding will go to the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative designed to address key supply chain concerns highlighted by COVID-19 in areas like health and medical products, food and food services, and chemical and plastics. Picking winners is so much fun!
Finally, vaccine geopolitics continues apace. China has now joined the WHO's COVAX initiative to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine throughout the world (if we ever get one), leaving the United States the only country not to participate. 10 vaccines are undergoing final stage III trials. The US will stick with its "Operation Warp Speed" plan to approve a US vaccine in November and produce 700 million doses by April 2021. It's a geopolitical race to the finish line with the winner securing early herd immunity, an open economy and society, plus huge soft power benefits to boot. It's Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong all over again!