It really is a complex time, full of intrigue, and uncertainty.

However, there is one way to cut through all this. Using a simple criteria that has proven to be an excellent predictor of the election.

As James Carvell, then the campaign manager for Bill Clinton back in 1992, famously said: “It's the economy stupid.”

And I think he's absolutely correct. Ultimately it will be the economy that will determine this election.