The NFL Draft is just three weeks away. As we prepare for our Super Bowl, let's take a look at the confidence rating of every team heading into the most important weekend of the offseason. Our First Down hits the A Tier teams—teams like the Chiefs who consistently ace the draft (03:30). Quarterbacks matter more than any other single position, and success—Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, etc.—helps "draft ability" rankings, while whiffing—Zach Wilson, Mac Jones—knocks teams down a few pegs. Devon's bias shows up talking about the Detroit Lions and Brad Holmes, aka the Draft Master. Second Down hits the teams who are pretty average at drafting (12:54). We're talking about consistently good, not flashy drafters—the Baltimore Ravens, for example. Plus, Les Snead and the LA Rams proved "bleep them picks" worked. We also shoutout the 49ers for moving on from overdrafting Trey Lance. Alex hypothesizes that the Buccaneers looked better than they were because Tom Brady makes lacrosse players look like NFL stars. Our Third Down hits the teams who are just hoping for the best (27:15). It starts like this year's draft—with the Chicago Bears. They missed on Justin Fields, so now what? Lots of teams *might* be good at drafting, but their entire rosters are balanced on a razor's edge. Fourth Down hits the teams who aren't good at drafting (39:30). We start the bottom tier with the current-regime Vikings. It stings, but—the last couple years haven't worked out super well. Get a QB who stars for years to come? All is forgiven. For the Broncos? It's pretty bleak. Finally, this week's Out of Bounds play gets a wide receiver involved in a high-speed hit and run (50:23). Offseason, man.

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Thanks for joining us in the AD's Office, hosted by Alex Larsen and Devon Plecas. Each week, we'll take you through our takes on the NFL. We'll be back every week, recapping everything going on in the League that never rests. Long live football.

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