In this Week 12 Player Prop Breakdown, Stephie Smalls is joined by analytics sharp Anand Nanduri for a deep dive into the most exploitable matchups on the board. The two kick things off with the Justin Jefferson debate, breaking down why the Vikings star should clear 5.5 receptions despite the shaky play of rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. From there, Anand targets Tee Higgins and his expanded role with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined, plus the Bengals’ ongoing crisis defending tight ends — setting up a smash spot for Hunter Henry.

Smalls fires off her own favorites, including Maxx Crosby to notch a sack against Cleveland, Kenneth Walker over 59.5 rush yards versus a beatable Titans front, and Jacoby Brissett sailing past 36.5 pass attempts as Arizona leans entirely on the air. The pair also hit Lions–Giants explosives, calling out Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush and Jameson Williams deep-shot potential.

They wrap with Steph’s signature Stephceptions picks — highlighted by Tyrone Tracy Jr. longest reception and a potential Ben Sinnott red-zone look.

Then it's time for EXTRA HOLES. Producer Ryan McKee joins to review last week’s 0–5 Circa Million disaster and map out a bounce-back card. The two debate sharp sides like Jets +13, Seahawks as big favorites, Colts vs. Chiefs, Bears–Steelers uncertainty with the Aaron Rodgers injury cloud, and whether fading the public still rules the season.

A full board breakdown, prop bets with real edges, and Circa strategy you can use immediately.

0:00 – Intro
0:42 – JJ McCarthy talk
2:18 – Justin Jefferson props
4:55 – Tee Higgins usage
7:10 – Bengals vs TEs
9:34 – Hunter Henry case
11:58 – Bengals linebackers bad
13:08 – Brissett pass attempts
15:27 – Make linebackers great
17:11 – Seahawks heavy personnel
19:58 – Under-center play action
21:31 – QB evaluation issues
23:10 – Titans run matchup
25:44 – Kenneth Walker yards
28:02 – Maxx Crosby sack
29:55 – Lions explosive plays
32:50 – Jameson Williams SGP
33:57 – Anand sign-off
34:40 – Extra Holes start
35:12 – Circa picks recap

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