Financial Review

No Argument for Bulls


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The Fed chases the bulls away. Say it ain’t so Lefty. What you see in the mirror. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-19-2016   DOW – 91 = 17,435 SPX – 7 = 2040 NAS – 26 = 4712 10 Y – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .03 = 48.16 GOLD – 3.50 = 1255.50   Fed rate-hike probabilities have been pulled forward. The April Federal Open Market Committee minutes were released yesterday, and they suggested that if conditions are right, the Fed may raise rates in June. While this was not particularly new, it sent shivers through the fed fund futures market. Traders had been pricing in a minimal chance of a June rate hike and a just-over-50% chance the next hike would occur in December. After the minutes’ release, however, markets now see a 60% chance of a rate hike in either June or July. So we had a complete turnaround in conventional wisdom from no hike in June to an almost certain hike in June.   This morning Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said we are near full employment and inflation is approaching the Fed’s target of 2%, but he says he wants to see faster potential growth. Fischer did not comment on the likelihood the Fed will raise interest rates again in June. Fischer said more study should be devoted to finding ways to boost the so-called equilibrium real interest rate, which is the level of borrowing costs associated with stable inflation and full employment.   ...
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Financial ReviewBy Sinclair Noe