A new and far-reaching study of how to transition the global energy system to one with net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 highlights the need for a dramatic acceleration in the pace and scale of renewable-energy and grid investment, while simultaneously halting new fossil-fuel supply projects and abandoning any new unabated coal plants.

Published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as part of preparations for the twenty-sixth Conference of the Parties, or COP26, climate gathering scheduled for Glasgow, Scotland, in November, the ‘Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector’ report concludes that the world has a viable, albeit narrow, pathway for limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels.

Central to the pathway is a rise in the role of electricity, derived primarily from increasingly cost-competitive renewable plants, in achieving net-zero.

Electricity, the IEA shows, will need to account for almost 50% of total energy consumption in 2050 and play a key role across all sectors, from transport to buildings and industry, including becoming a key input for producing low-emissions fuels such as hydrogen.

To achieve this, total electricity generation increases over two-and-a-half times between today and 2050 and no additional new final investment decisions are taken for new unabated coal plants, while the least efficient coal plants are phased out by 2030, and the remaining coal plants still in use by 2040 are retrofitted to capture carbon.

“By 2050, almost 90% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources, with wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) together accounting for nearly 70%. Most of the remainder comes from nuclear,” the report states.

Described as the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050, while also ensuring stable, affordable and universal energy access, the report calls on policymakers to prioritise the following:

Raising total yearly energy investment to $5-trillion by 2030, which would add an extra 0.4 percentage point a year to annual global gross domestic production (GDP) growth, and place global GDP 4% higher in 2030 than it would be based on current trends.

A rapid scaling up of solar PV and wind this decade to reach a yearly additions tempo of 630 GW of solar PV and 390 GW of wind by 2030, four times the record levels set in 2020.

Enabling infrastructure and technologies key to transforming the energy system, such as transmission and distribution grid expansions and electric vehicle (EV) charging points. Yearly investment in transmission and distribution grids will need to expand under the pathway from $260-billion today to $820-billion in 2030, while the number of public charging points for EVs rises from around 1-million today to 40-million in 2030, requiring yearly investment of almost $90-billion in 2030.

A massive roll-out of efficient energy technologies to support a world economy in 2030 that is some 40% larger than today but which uses 7% less energy.

The implementation of policies to limit, or provide disincentives for, the use of certain fuels and technologies, such as unabated coal-fired power stations, gas boilers and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The report states that, beyond projects already committed as of 2021, no further new oil and gas fields should be approved, while new coal mines or mine extensions are not required. One of the 400 milestones in the report is a halt to all ICE vehicle sales by 2035.

An intensification of research and development, as well as demonstration projects to unlock and commercialise advanced batteries, hydrogen electrolysers and direct air capture and storage, which are seem as the highest-potential new technologies to support the net-zero transition. About $90-billion of public money needs to be mobilised globally to complete a portfolio of demonstration projects before 2030, with only $25-billion currently budgeted. The report shows...