The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has belatedly released the background technical information that has been used to inform the assumptions included in the draft Integrated Resource Plan of 2023 (IRP 2023) and will host two virtual workshops this month to provide greater insight into the plan.

However, no formal public hearings are scheduled either ahead of or after the February 23 deadline for the submission of written comments, despite serious and growing concern over the plan's assumptions and outcomes.

The so-called draft IRP 2023 was published for public comment only on January 4 and the DMRE's current intention is to present a revised version (taking account of comments received) to the social partners at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) in April, before seeking Cabinet approval in May for the Gazetting of the final version.

To meet the deadline - which would be unprecedented, given that it took five years, from 2015 to 2019, to secure approval for the prevailing IRP 2019, whose assumptions were, thus, considered to be out of date from day one - only virtual workshops have been scheduled for January 18 and 31 rather than the provincial physical hearings that accompanied the previous update.

Given the significant changes outlined, however, there are already suggestions that the written comment period may have to be extended and that the process should include an opportunity for stakeholders to make oral submissions.

Director-general Jacob Mbele has indicated that some commentators could be invited to make presentations during the two workshops but made no commitment to broadening these into formal public hearings, arguing that it had become urgent to update the IRP considering changes to circumstances and assumptions.

It is precisely these assumptions, however, that several stakeholders are already starting to criticise and question; questioning that was intensified by the fact that the Gazette Notice containing the document was published in the absence of the data underpinning the assumptions used.

There has been criticism, for instance, of the draft IRP 2023's assumption of ongoing loadshedding until at least 2027 and its indication that the shortfall can be overcome only once there was 7 220 MW of new gas-to-power (GTP) capacity built and that these dispatchable plants should operate at a "high utilisation factor", of over 85% (86.71% to be precise, as outlined in Annexure B).

GAS-TO-POWER SCALE-UP

This outcome represents a significant scale-up from the IRP 2019 both in terms of assumed GTP capacity and future gas volumes, which are assumed to be low in the current version, with the gas plants expected to offer flexibility rather than near consistent supply.

The cost implications are not fully clear even after the publication of the technical cost assumptions used, which are also open to contestation.

Mbele acknowledged that the plants would, at least initially, operate using imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), which would expose the electricity supply industry to a foreign-exchange (forex) risk that had hitherto been marginal.

On January 10, the State-owned Transnet National Ports Authority announced that it had appointed a consortium comprising Vopak Terminal Durban and Transnet Pipelines as the preferred bidder to develop and operate LNG terminal at the Port of Richards Bay's South Dunes Precinct.

There was also no immediate clarity in the IRP 2023 regarding the gas-supportive infrastructure requirement, or the possible cost implications of building such infrastructure.

The increased weighing of GTP in the draft arises principally from the hard wiring of two Ministerial determinations into one of five scenarios outlined for 'Horizon 1', which covers the period from 2024 to 2030: a 3 000 MW allocation for GTP arising from investments procured from independent power producers; and a 3 000 MW allocation related to a determination, secured in 2023, for an Eskom GTP pr...