This week covers three topics that, at first glance, have nothing to do with each other. They are all the same story.

We start with Germany's failure to secure a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, losing out to Austria and Portugal in a vote that sent shockwaves through German politics but barely registered anywhere else. That gap tells you everything. Germany spent decades building one of the most effective soft power strategies in the world: non-threatening, generous, culturally present, and economically indispensable. Since 2022 it has been systematically dismantling that strategy in favour of rearmament and hard power posturing, and the world has taken note. The foreign minister reportedly considered resigning. The German media focused on campaign timelines and lobbying failures. Nobody asked the more important question: why is the country that everyone used to want to hug now being treated like everyone else?

From there we move to the Iran-US-Israel situation, now in its fourth month with no resolution in sight. Trump's relationship with Netanyahu has visibly soured. The ceasefire that was supposed to take a few weeks is nowhere near complete. The one genuinely significant diplomatic achievement, Iran's agreement to stop stockpiling and enriching uranium, was thrown away before it could be signed. Meanwhile oil prices remain at levels last seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OECD projects global growth slowing from 3.4 to 2.8% even in an optimistic scenario, and approximately 45 million additional people have been pushed into extreme hunger as a direct consequence of the conflict.

We close with Ebola and the Hantavirus, and what the Western obsession with both says about a political culture that would rather identify an invisible external enemy than ask the questions that actually matter. The Federated States of Micronesia issued a public health warning about diseases with zero confirmed cases on the island. It is a small detail. It is also a perfect summary of where we are.

As Joseph Nye put it: soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. Germany used to know that. The West used to know that. They have both forgotten.

This podcast is an individual project between us, Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. We are supported by our producer Stefani Obradovic from Western Bubble Insights & Strategy. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at [email protected].