This week, we discuss the weaker US dollar, as well as the FOMC meeting and payrolls data ahead. Also in focus is the announcement of an historic India-EU trade deal following an incredible 20 years of negotiation. We also look at monetary and fiscal matters in India, with the upcoming budget and central bank policy meeting. In Europe, we look out for the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings, with a stronger EUR making things a little more interesting. And finally, we preview the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, following stronger than forecast core inflation data this week.

In the aftermath of President Trump's Davos speech, we discuss his aims, the response from others and potential constraints. We also welcome guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy and Government Affairs, to share her views on the latest geopolitical developments. In addition, we preview the FOMC decision where we see rates remaining unchanged albeit with some voting dissents. In Australia, we look to crucial CPI data ahead of the RBA decision in February.

We preview US core PCE, UK CPI, and China GDP, and discuss the latest on geopolitics and the Fed. In Japan, the BOJ is on the spotlight amid JPY weakness and prospects of snap elections. Norges Bank, CBRT, BI and BNM are also on tap with likely divergent forward guidance. Chapters: US: 01:55, Japan: 09:20, China & Asia: 15:40, Turkey, Europe & UK: 22:05.

We discuss US geopolitical developments and their potential economic impact, as well as the latest employment and inflation data. The Bank of Korea is likely to leave rates unchanged in January, but we also outline our more hawkish view for the 2026. In Europe, we preview the UK data releases, review euro area inflation and discuss prospects for closer UK-EU relations. Chapters: US: 02:10, Korea and Asia: 09:45, Europe: 15:55.

In the final instalment of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists discuss the outlook and key risks for the US and Canada for the year ahead. We discuss the key drivers of our above consensus view on US growth, including fiscal support, diminishing trade risks, a rebounding labour market and strong consumer. We expect inflation to remain above target but think the Fed will cut twice in H2 under a new FOMC Chair.

In the third of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we discuss the focus on fiscal policy, disinflation pressures and the major risks to the region in the year ahead. In the Euro Area, we see growth accelerating with supportive fiscal policy, but limited inflation pressure and no ECB rate changes. In the UK, we still expect another rate cut and see significant disinflation in the months ahead, with political risks building later in 2026. We expect 1000bp of rate cuts in Türkiye as inflation falls from over 30% towards 20% and the real exchange rate appreciates.

In the second of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we focus on the year ahead outlook for Japan, which we expect to remain on a recovery path in 2026. Joined by guest speakers Yujiro Goto, Head of FX Strategy, Tomohaki Shishido, Senior Rate Strategist, and Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, our Economists share their top views on the economy, the risks to watch out for, and the implications on FX rates and equity markets.

In the first of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists in Asia discuss Nomura's key macro and market views for the region in the year ahead. In China, we discuss the "great divide" and the challenging backdrop for policy makers. For India, we expect another Goldilocks year, with strong cyclical growth, low inflation and another RBI rate cut. Across the broad region, we forecast a year of divergence, with technology and domestic demand divergences, creating leaders and laggards. We also welcome Craig Chan, our Global Head of FX Strategy, who outlines some thoughts on the US dollar, where we see some downside medium term risk, and a couple of potential medium-term winners.

December seems to have been marked by dissents and divisions within and among central banks across the globe. We discuss the impact of the Fed's cut on the US Dollar, as well as preview the upcoming jobs report and CPI data in the US after the government shutdown. We also preview our expectations of contrasting European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions, as well as Bank of Japan, Bank of Thailand, and Bank Indonesia meetings which are also set to deliver likely diverging decisions. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 09:06, Japan: 14:15, Asia: 19:18.

The Fed is firmly priced for a cut on 10 December. We preview the upcoming Fed meeting, risks, and discuss the board's potential composition in 2026. We speak with Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, on how the Bank of Japan's rate pricing is evolving, and more broadly in Asia, we then discuss our 2026 outlook for the region. In Europe, the SNB is in focus alongside UK data and Scandinavian inflation.