Nothing to See Here

The ASX session had a 77-point range yesterday. Since 2021, 276 ASX sessions have followed a prior-day range of at least 70 points, and in 47% of them the open was within 10 points of the session high or low.

Today's question: after a wide day, does the ASX pick a direction early?

Filter (Mosaic Data Lab):
• AUS200 ASX SESSION RANGE (PRIOR DAY) at or above 70 (prior day's 10am to 4pm high-minus-low)

AUS200 ASX SESSION HIGH reached at least 40 points from the 10am open in 33% of sessions (90 of 276); AUS200 ASX SESSION LOW reached 40 points in 36% (99 of 276); 66% reached 40 points in one direction or the other. Positions left on both sides by the prior day's swing is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.

Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

The S&P's first hour after the Globex reopen ran 48 points yesterday, and the S&P then closed up 33. In the 13 previous day-two sessions after that combination, the S&P closed higher again in 12.

Today's question: does that strength carry into day two?

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):
• US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at or above 30 (the first hour after the Globex reopen)
• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above 1 (the S&P closed higher that day)

S&P500 cash close-to-close on day two: higher in 12 of 13 (median +38); the one exception was 17/06/2025 (-52). US500 GLOBAL HIGH reached at least 40 points from the Globex reopen in 11 of 13 (median +61); US500 GLOBAL LOW reached 40 points in only 5 of 13 (median -28). Day-one buyers still being around on day two is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.

Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

The S&P 500 fell 86 points on Friday and Australian futures were down about 20 this morning. On the 24 previous Mondays after an S&P fall of at least 70 points, the ASX session finished in the same direction as its first hour 21 times.

Today's question: once the ASX opens, how do you get a read on direction?

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or below -70 (S&P 500 cash close-to-close on the prior trading day)

• Day = Monday

XJO close-to-close: lower in 21 of 24 (median -71.5), with pre-open futures typically about 70 points below the prior close. AUS200 FIRST HOUR (10am to 11am): red in 11, green in 13. After a red first hour, the AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm) finished lower in 10 of 11; after a green first hour it finished higher in 11 of 13. Local money showing its hand by 11am is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.

Explore it yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

The ASX 200 dropped 33 points in the first hour yesterday, then finished the cash session 37 points above its 10am open. Across the 12 previous cases since September 2021, the next ASX session traded at least 30 points below its open in 10 (average low -46.4 points), the first hour was negative 9 times, and the session closed lower 7 times and higher 5 (average -3.8 points).

The filters are joined with AND, both measured on the prior day:

• AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) at or below -20 points (10:00 to 11:00 Sydney)

• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at or above 20 points (10:00 open to 16:00 close, Sydney)

Lows are measured from the 10am Sydney open. Today's session also matches; its outcome is not part of the sample. Small historical samples describe selected cases; they are not forecasts.

Mosaic Collective: https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ad1451150dde75eb6be0a1d

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

The S&P 500 fell 84 points on US CPI day and Australian futures were down about 22 this morning. In the 8 previous sessions after a CPI-day fall of at least 50 points, the S&P close moved in the same direction as the Asia session every time.

Today's question: what happens the day after a US CPI sell-off?

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):

• US500 EVENTS = POST CPI (the day after a US CPI release)

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or below -50 (S&P 500 cash close-to-close on CPI day)

AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm, 7 sessions with data): 4 higher, all by at least 44 points; 3 lower; median +44. XJO close-to-close: lower in 6 of 7, mostly from the gap at the open. US500 GLOBAL HIGH reached at least +50 from the Globex reopen in 4 of 8; US500 GLOBAL LOW reached at least -80 in 4 of 8. US500 ASIA SESSION and the S&P500 cash close finished in the same direction in all 8. The first big trading window after the number setting the tone is a possible explanation, not something eight sessions can prove. A very small sample; not a forecast.

Mosaic Collective: https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acff88d3e100a45f25f1d1b

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

Australian futures slipped into today's US CPI release, down about 16 points before the open. On the 21 previous CPI days like this, the ASX session was mixed, but the overnight session that contains the CPI release finished higher in 17 of the 20 with data.

Today's question: what does the AUS200 do overnight, once the CPI number actually lands?

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):

• US500 EVENTS = CPI DAY

• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) at or below -1 (futures below the prior ASX close before the open)

AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm): 9 higher, 12 lower, median -6. AUS200 OVERNIGHT SESSION (POST) (4pm close to about 7am, covering the 8:30am New York CPI release): 17 higher, 3 lower, median +32, mean +36; only one session lost more than 5 points (-58 on 10 June 2026). Median overnight high +58 and low -19 from the ASX close. The hot October 2022 print (overnight +105) and the soft November 2022 print (+190) both finished higher; Mosaic does not record CPI surprises, so this sample does not split by them. Futures having already priced the fear into the number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.

Mosaic Collective: https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ace987a5b91b24a53f67480

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

US CPI lands tomorrow night. On the 48 day-before-CPI sessions where the S&P 500's first hour after the futures reopen moved, a green first hour was followed by a higher cash close 15 times out of 18. A red one, 12 times out of 30.

Today's question: does a green or red first hour set the tone for the day before CPI?

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):

• US500 EVENTS = PRE CPI (the day before a US CPI release)

• US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at or above +1 (green) or at or below -1 (red), measured from the 18:00 New York Globex reopen to 18:59

Green first hour (18 sessions since January 2022): US500 ASIA SESSION higher 13 times; S&P500 cash close-to-close higher 15 times, median +28.5, mean +21; median global low -12.5 and high +44 from the reopen. Red first hour (30 sessions since November 2021): Asia higher 11 times (3 flat); S&P500 higher 12 times, median -15.5; median global low -36.5 and high +17.5. The Asia session includes the first hour, and the rest of Asia looked much the same in both groups. The red group's mean S&P move (+10.8) is lifted by 9 April 2025 (+498, the tariff-pause day); without it the mean is -6. Positioning into the CPI number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Nine pre-CPI sessions with a flat first hour are excluded. Not a forecast.

Mosaic Collective (green first hour setup): https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acd5a72c3040be01140a11f

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

It's Columbus Day in the US: the bond market is shut, but stocks are open. Across the five Columbus Days since 2021, S&P 500 futures rose into the US cash open every time, then the cash session stalled.

Today's question: what does the S&P do on Columbus Day?

Sample: the five Columbus Day Mondays from 2021 to 2025 (11 Oct 2021, 10 Oct 2022, 9 Oct 2023, 14 Oct 2024, 13 Oct 2025), compared with every other day in Mosaic's history.

US500 ASIA + LONDON SESSION (Globex reopen to the US cash open): up on all five, mean +29, median +20 (other days: up 54% of the time, median +3). The London session alone was up on all five, median +25. US500 FIRST HOUR: lower on all four days with data. US500 US SESSION: higher on two of five, mean -4. US500 GLOBAL LOW (from the Globex reopen): mean -19 against -37 on other days, never worse than -39. S&P500 (POST), the next day's cash close-to-close: lower four times out of five, median -17. Thinner volume with the bond market closed is a possible explanation, not something five days can prove. A tiny sample; not a forecast.

Mosaic Collective: https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acbfcd5fe9c0d2574a121cd

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

Brent traded almost $5 above its open overnight while the S&P 500 closed 34 points lower. After the 32 previous days like this, the S&P traded at least 50 points above the next day's global session open within three trading days in 28 cases.

Today's question: after an oil spike and a down day in US stocks, what does the S&P do over the next three trading days?

Filters (Mosaic, both, AND, on the condition day):

• BRENT OPEN TO DAY HIGH at or above 4.5 (Brent's open-to-high move, USD per barrel)

• S&P500 at or below -1 (S&P 500 cash close-to-close, points)

Measured from the next trading day's global session open through the close of the third trading day (Mosaic AI path study, 32 occurrences, condition dates 28 Feb 2022 to 10 Sep 2026). Highest level reached: at least +50 points in 28 of 32 (median +87). Lowest level reached: below the open in 31 of 32 (median -30). Net finish at the close of day three: 24 of 32 higher, median +36, mean +51, range -198 to +301. The highs and lows do not show which came first. Ten dates fall between late February and March 2022 and seven in March 2026, so these are not 32 independent episodes. An oil-shock sell-off being bought back as the headline cools is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.

Full research note: https://sywbdt.substack.com/p/mosaic-market-research-note-18

Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

Bitcoin fell more than $2,200 and gold $56 an ounce yesterday, and Australian futures went down with them. After the 23 previous days like this, futures were typically 74 points below the prior ASX close before the open. This morning they were down about 54, less than usual.

Today's question: when futures don't fall as hard, does the ASX finish the job in the first hour?

I cover: the setup, how far Australian futures usually fell before the open, and what the first hour did when futures held up versus when they had already dropped.

Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):

• BTC D-1 at or below -1,500 (the prior day's Bitcoin open-to-close move, USD)

• GOLD DAY CHANGE (PRIOR DAY) at or below -50 (the prior gold session's close-to-close change, USD per ounce)

Twenty-three completed sessions matched since June 2022 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known; two ASX-holiday Mondays have no ASX data). Before the 10am open, Mosaic's pre-open futures dislocation reading had a median of -74 points against the prior ASX close (mean -67.5) and was negative in 17 of the 23. In the 10 sessions where it held better than -60, the AUS200 first hour (10am to 11am) fell in 8, was flat once and rose once, averaging -25 points. In the 13 where it was already -60 or lower, the first hour was split, 7 up and 6 down (average -6). Broad cash-raising across assets, and local selling at the open when futures have not priced it in, are possible explanations, not something this sample proves. A small sample; not a forecast.

Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.