President Barack Obama: narrow winner or big loser in November.  Presidential election history gives us indications that Mr. Obama either squeaks back into the White House or gets an undignified boot in the back of his designer trousers.  In modern presidential elections, only Jerry Ford lost his re-election bid narrowly.  Odds are, if Mr. Obama loses, it will probably be on the order of Hoover (1932) or Carter (1980). 

If Mr. Obama wins, it's closer to George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.  But the conditions are dramatically different in the country from 2004, and not to Mr. Obama's advantage.