Episode 111 - Oil recovery in the US? | COVID | Noncompliance at OPEC | China

Saudi Arabia says there is 'no room whatsoever' for non-compliance over OPEC+ production cuts

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/08/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-says-no-room-whatsoever-for-opec-non-compliance.html

- but really, can Iraq comply when it doesn’t have full control over its own industry

Russia's Novak sees potential 3-5 million bpd oil market shortage in July: Ifax

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23B0ZF

What the Data Tells Us: US Oil Needs $70 Per Barrel to Sustain Operations

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/06/05/what_the_data_tells_us_us_oil_needs_70_per_barrel_to_sustain_operations_495417.amp.html

- Rig count IS an indicator of activity But rig count had been declining for awhile. It doesn’t have to go back to where it was before.

- We could get back to where we were in December with fewer rigs

- Companies are planning well into the future and ready to apply for permit to drill the rig

- Sitton predicts $100 oil before the end of 2022???

Morgan Stanley flags risk oil price rally will lead to a fall

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-research-morganstanley-oil/morgan-stanley-flags-risk-oil-price-rally-will-lead-to-a-fall-idUSKBN23F15I

- Could it be that coronavirus lockdowns actually helped shale industry more by ripping off the bandaid?

- Instead of a slow bleeding, forced Saudis and Russians to pull back

- Will the protests help people conquer their fear of going out and actually help oil Restore oil demand

Shale producers’ hedging strategies take center stage

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2112308-shale-producers-hedging-strategies-take-center-stage#.Xt5GY7E-hiQ

- Pioneer, Diamondback, Parsley and Concho have hedged over 85% of their 2020 output

Saudis Make Biggest Oil Price Hike in 20 Years After OPEC+ Cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/saudis-make-biggest-oil-price-hike-in-20-years-after-opec-cuts

China's May crude imports hit record high at 11.34 mil b/d, up 19% on year

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/060820-chinas-may-crude-imports-hit-record-high-at-1134-mil-bd-up-19-on-year

- China likes cheap oil

- China doing more than people think to keep people happy WHILE at the same time doing what they want to.

Check out “The Rise and Fall of OPEC in the Twentieth Century” by Giuliano Garavini

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07VBGDBCD/ref=as_li_ss_tl?_encoding=UTF8&btkr;=1&linkCode;=sl1&tag;=ryanraysr-20&linkId;=0eeeb607dd43f7f65af5b04eb9d6e102&language;=en_US

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/#ddfe4cd3ebaf

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/06/08/coronavirus-lockdowns-may-only-exacerbate-climate-fights/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-08/china-says-debt-payments-paused-for-77-nations-after-g-20-deal?sref=UDsXHHSk

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