April 29, 2025

Opinions stated confidently are not facts (TLP 2025w17)

4 minutes

Opinions that are stated confidently do not magically become facts. Let's talk about the fallacy of arguments from authority.

Notes:

I am endlessly fascinated by logical fallacies, they are everywhere once you become aware of them.

Wikipedia even has an entire list of such fallacies, which states the following: "A fallacy is the use of invalid or otherwise faulty reasoning in the construction of an argument. All forms of human communication can contain fallacies.". Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

As I work with all kinds of domain experts, one such fallacy I encounter daily is the "Argument from authority".

According to the Wikipedia entry for that fallacy, "An argument from authority is a form of argument in which the opinion of an authority figure (or figures) is used as evidence to support an argument.

The argument from authority is a logical fallacy, and obtaining knowledge in this way is fallible.

A common cognitive bias is that it is a practical and sound way of obtaining knowledge that some presume to be correct when the authority is universally accepted, though some consider this to be an obvious circular reasoning and repetition of an argument from authority and others consider to be a very weak defeasible argument or an outright fallacy.". Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defeasible_reasoning

It is important to remember that opinions stated confidently are not facts, instead they are still opinions.

In the wider media, especially in politics or economics, we see this appeal to all kinds of experts.

Experts will always speak with confidence on their chosen area of expertise, but that confidence can lead to blind spots including the dismissal of new evidence that conflicts with their existing mental models.

More sinister than that, some people will lie with such confidence that they will convince their audience.

This is the basis of all "confidence tricks" employed by scammers and conmen.

According to Wikipedia, "A scam, or a confidence trick, is an attempt to defraud a person or group after first gaining their trust.". Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scam

It is much easier for a conman to gain such trust when they are speaking from a position of authority.

So how to we solve this?

As a leader, you need to ask your team to validate facts via evidence from multiple sources, then present their findings.

Such validates become especially crucial if you are making a strategic decision based upon such evidence.

Notes and subscription links are here: https://techleader.pro/a/690-Opinions-stated-confidently-are-not-facts-(TLP-2025w17)

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By John Collins