The situation with Bashar al-Assad in Syria is quite complex and involves various political, social, and economic factors. The protests against Assad began in 2011, as part of the Arab Spring movement, where citizens across the Middle East sought greater democratic freedoms, economic reform, and an end to authoritarian rule.

In Syria, people initially demonstrated peacefully, demanding reforms and the release of political prisoners. However, the government's violent crackdown on these protests led to widespread anger and escalation. This situation quickly spiraled into a civil war, with various factions emerging, including opposition groups, extremist organizations, and foreign powers intervening.

The international community has had mixed responses to Assad's government. Some countries supported the opposition, while others, including Russia and Iran, backed Assad. Over time, Assad has managed to regain control of significant parts of Syria, but the conflict has resulted in immense suffering, displacement, and ongoing instability in the region.

The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a significant turning point with far-reaching implications, especially for Iran. This event has exposed Iran's vulnerabilities in the region, particularly regarding its strategic axis of resistance, which includes groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and various militia factions. The backdrop of Syria's civil unrest, which began in 2011, saw Iran actively supporting Assad to maintain its influence.

Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran has invested significant resources, both militarily and economically, to support Assad's regime. This support was crucial for maintaining its foothold in Syria, which served as a vital conduit for transferring weapons and resources to its allies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's involvement was aimed at countering its regional adversaries and projecting power across the Middle East.

The increased military pressure from Israel, particularly following the October 2023 Hamas attacks, has severely weakened Iran's proxy groups. Israel's efforts to degrade these groups have highlighted their inability to operate effectively in the face of coordinated military action.

Within Iran, there has been growing criticism of the regime's involvement in supporting Assad, especially given the humanitarian crisis in Syria and the immense loss of life. This dissent reflects a concern about the cost of sustaining such alliances at the expense of Iranian lives and resources.

The reliance on the axis of resistance has proven to be a double-edged sword. While it was intended to provide Iran with a defensive network, the recent developments have shown that this strategy has left Iran in a vulnerable position. The loss of Assad as an ally undermines Tehran's influence and complicates its ability to project power in the region.

The axis, once seen as a robust deterrent against adversaries, is now perceived as weakened. Iran is struggling to maintain its deterrence capabilities, and the coordinated attacks against its proxy groups have left it in a defensive posture.