The Quantum Drift

Orion and the AI Plateau: Why Language Models May Be Hitting a Ceiling


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OpenAI’s latest AI model, codenamed "Orion," is making waves—but maybe not the splash that was expected. This week, Robert and Haley dive into why Orion’s improvements over GPT-4 might feel a bit underwhelming. We discuss the challenges of finding high-quality training data, OpenAI's shift towards generating synthetic data, and how limitations in scaling up large language models are impacting the entire AI field.

Key Highlights:

  • The New Reality for AI: Why OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are seeing diminishing returns on bigger language models.
  • The Data Dilemma: How AI companies are running out of new data sources and the implications of synthetic training data.
  • Shifting Focus: What scaling “inference” over “training” could mean for the future of AI.

Join us as we explore the evolving path to AGI and the changes reshaping AI development strategies.


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The Quantum DriftBy Robert Loft and Haley Hanson