Oscars Outsider

With festival season behind us, it’s time to check the receipts.

This week on Oscars Outsider, Craig and Dylan revisit some of their earliest predictions for the 2027 Oscar race. Which calls have aged surprisingly well — and which ones are looking increasingly difficult to defend? We reassess our early reads on films and performances including Fjord, The Social Reckoning, Artificial, Fatherland and more.

Then we turn to Best Visual Effects, looking back at the history of the category before predicting this year’s five nominees. Are Dune: Part Three, The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary already locks? Could Godzilla Minus Zero, Wildwood or an unexpected contender crash the lineup? And which film is actually positioned to win?

Plus: another big Oscars fantasy-draft trade, Netflix’s changing theatrical strategy, the increasingly serious awards push for Obsession, and our extremely measured response to the plan to release four Beatles movies at once.

Tell us which early predictions you got completely wrong — and who we’re overlooking in Best Visual Effects.

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#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #AwardsSeason #BestVisualEffects #OscarsOutsider

Craig and Dylan ask one of the juiciest questions of awards season: who is going to become this year’s Oscar villain?What actually makes a movie the villain of an awards race? We look back at some notorious examples — The Greatest Show on Earth, Crash, La La Land, and Green Book — and examine how politics, frontrunner fatigue, backlash, and the movie positioned as the “hero” can completely reshape an Oscar season.Then we turn to 2027. Could Fjord become the political lightning rod? Is I Play Rocky the kind of broad, backward-looking crowd-pleaser that awards watchers eventually turn on? Could Michael, Obsession, or even Toy Story 5 become the movie everyone is desperate to see lose?Plus: immediate changes to our Oscars Fantasy Draft, Artificial surging after New York, The Social Reckoning stumbling, Digger fading, and which films came out of NYFF looking stronger — or much weaker.Who do you think will be the villain of this awards season?#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #AwardsSeason #OscarsOutsider

It's DRAFT DAY on Oscars Outsider!

Craig and Dylan go head-to-head in our second annual Oscars Fantasy Draft, selecting 26 films they think will dominate the 2027 Academy Awards and the awards season leading up to them.

With *The Odyssey* looking like the obvious first overall pick, is there any strategy that can beat Christopher Nolan's epic? And how much should we be willing to gamble on films like *Dune: Part Three*, *Project Hail Mary*, and *I Play Rocky*?

Plus, we dig into the disastrous opening of *Digger*, debate whether Tom Cruise still has a shot at an Oscar nomination, and discuss what the Warner Bros. shake-up could mean for the future of ambitious studio filmmaking.

There are risky picks, an actual draft-day trade, some immediate regrets, and a few movies we might already be betting against.

**Follow the draft all season long:** https://oscarsoutsider.com

Who has the stronger roster? What did we draft way too early? And which movie did we foolishly leave on the board?

Let us know in the comments!

#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #TheOdyssey #Dune3 #OscarsOutsider

The Oscar race keeps getting messier. We break down the first reactions to Digger, the New York Film Festival relaunch of Paper Tiger, the growing momentum behind I Play Rocky, and the latest category-placement news around The Odyssey. Then we dive into what may be the most controversial Oscar category: Best Documentary.

We make our early documentary predictions and get into NAZA, Musk, 14th, You Can See Everything, The History of Concrete, Once Upon a Time in Harlem and more — plus the bizarre history of a category where Academy voters once reportedly used flashlights to signal when they wanted a movie eliminated.

And before we wrap up, we preview next week’s Oscars Outsider fantasy draft and some of the rule changes we’re making for year two.

The fall festival season is starting to reshape the Oscar race.We break down the surprising end of the Venice Film Festival, where Woman Unknown pulled off an unexpected Golden Lion win, before turning to one of the biggest questions coming out of Telluride and TIFF: is Fjord suddenly in trouble? After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, its North American reception has been much more divided—and the backlash could matter when awards season gets serious.We also get into the huge TIFF response to I Play Rocky, whether it could become this year’s crowd-pleasing Best Picture contender, the growing buzz around Artificial, Netflix finally giving some of its awards movies real theatrical windows, France’s latest International Feature dilemma, and some increasingly wild Oscar predictions.Oscars Outsider looks at the awards race, film festivals, Hollywood, and Oscar history from slightly outside the usual consensus.Subscribe for weekly Oscar predictions, reactions, and film history.I’d use “Is Fjord Starting to Fall?” rather than repeating “Is Fjord in Trouble?” verbatim—the thumbnail and title reinforce each other without saying exactly the same thing.

The Best International Feature Film Oscar is the most chaotic, politically charged, and scandal-ridden category in Academy history — and Dylan, Craig, and Sean are here to prove it.

In this episode: a full history of the award from its 1948 origins to today, including the infamous 1993 Uruguay scandal (a disqualified film, a federal lawsuit, and a French co-production sitting on the same ballot), the 1967 race where The Battle of Algiers won the Golden Lion while French critics boycotted its Venice premiere and stormed out of the auditorium, and the Michael Haneke Caché controversy that rewrote the language rules forever.

Plus: how the Anatomy of a Fall debacle directly caused a sweeping new AMPAS rule — and what it means for the 2025 race. Early country submissions are in: Romania is claiming the Palme d'Or winner Fjord, Japan grabbed the Hamaguchi film All of a Sudden, South Korea went with Possible Love over Hope. And the hosts react to mid-Venice buzz on Wild Horse Nine, Robert Pattinson in Prime Time, and Nathan Fielder's surprise Elizabeth Holmes documentary from Telluride.

Films discussed: The Battle of Algiers, A Man and a Woman, Fjord, All of a Sudden, Possible Love, Wild Horse Nine, Anatomy of a Fall, Caché, Paradise Now, La Strada, A Place in the World, Close to Eden, Loves of a Blond, and more.

Chapters:

0:00 Venice & Telluride news

13:58 History of Best International Film

28:36 The 1993 Uruguay disqualification scandal

42:15 The 1967 race: Battle of Algiers vs. A Man and a Woman

1:09:28 New AMPAS rule & 2025 race submissions

Venice 2025 is days away — and awards season is officially on. Dylan and Craig break down the full in-competition lineup, make their Golden Lion predictions, and identify the Oscar sleepers you need to know before the first screenings drop.

On the table: Is Wild Horse Nine the safest Golden Lion bet, or can Lee Chang-dong's long-awaited Possible Love pull off a surprise? Why Florian Zeller's Bunker (Penélope Cruz, Paul Dano, Stephen Graham) could be the dark horse Oscar launch of the festival. The shocking stat about South Korean cinema at the Oscars — only ONE nomination ever, and it won Best Picture. Plus: the late-addition NASA documentary from the No Other Land directors (produced by Jonathan Glazer), Maggie Gyllenhaal as jury president and what that signals, Nanni Moretti's return to Venice after 36 years, and a brief history of how Venice went from the Mussolini Cup to Hollywood's favourite awards launchpad.

Films discussed: Wild Horse Nine · Possible Love · Ink · Bunker · Primetime · Company · Look Back · Woman Unknown · NASA · All of a Sudden · Minotaur · Nomadland · The Shape of Water · Poor Things · Roma · Joker

Categories: Best Picture · Best International Feature Film · Best Documentary · Golden Lion

🎬 Subscribe for Venice reaction episodes and our upcoming deep-dive into Best International Feature Film history.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction & news

8:11 Venice history

15:07 Golden Lion predictions

23:31 Oscar sleepers & dark horses

32:26 Personal picks & wrap-up

Is The Odyssey actually WEAK on screenplay? Dylan and Craig make the bold case that Christopher Nolan's writing could be the one category his ancient-Greece epic trips up on — and back it up with a full slate of way-too-early predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars.This week: Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! picked as the surprise Original Screenplay frontrunner, Quentin Tarantino's Cliff Booth script gets the harsh truth about his cultural stock, La Bola Negra vs. The Invite for Adapted winner, and why neither host put Digger anywhere near their lists. Plus: is Project Hail Mary buzz real, or just pre-festival noise?Films covered: The Odyssey, Behemoth!, Wild Horse Nine, The Debut, Fjord, The Invite, La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part Three, Ink, Club Kid, The Social Reckoning, Josephine, Toy Story 5, Prime Time, Cliff Booth, Hope, Heart of the Beast. Categories: Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay.Chapters:0:00 News roundup16:27 Screenplay category history18:30 Best Original Screenplay predictions31:40 Best Adapted Screenplay predictions46:12 The Odyssey's Achilles heel

The Oscar race just reshuffled — and we've got receipts. Dylan and Craig dig into the latest Best Picture prediction lists from Variety's Clayton Davis and the full Next Best Picture team, then argue about which hyped contenders are going to quietly vanish by November.On the docket: Project Hail Mary goes from "fake contender" to consensus pick, Digger keeps sliding after that trailer whiff, and Behemoth! emerges as the serious adult drama the race desperately needs. Plus: both hosts just watched The Invite and loved it — so where does Olivia Wilde's chamber comedy actually land among Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories? And does Penelope Cruz's clearest path run through The Invite or La Bola Negra?Also in this episode: Austria officially submits Rose (starring Sandra Hüller) for International Feature, Ryan Gosling's Ghost Rider deal and the sad Marvel gravitational pull on prestige actors, Barbie 2's salary standoff, and a quick audit of Best Actress, Actor, and Supporting races.Films discussed: The Invite, The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part 3, Digger, Behemoth!, The Debut, Fjord, Rose, Fatherland, Obsession, Paper Tiger, The Social Reckoning, Being Human, Prime Time, and more.🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscar race coverage every step of the way to the ceremony.Chapters:0:00 News and headlines11:46 The Invite review26:35 Variety and Next Best Picture lists41:44 Risers, fallers, and wildcards48:54 Acting category predictions