Introduction:

• Overview of the podcast focusing on Commerce Ventures' annual prediction season.
• Discussion on examining the outcomes of 2023 predictions and their implications for 2024.

Review of 2023 Predictions:

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Implosion:

• BNPL usage remains high, defying expectations of implosion.
• Resilience noted despite economic challenges.
• Acknowledgment of misjudgment on BNPL providers' performance.

Consumer Balance Sheet Resilience:

• Surprising resilience in consumer balance sheets.
• Delinquencies did not rise as anticipated.
• Challenger banks found ways to adapt to challenges.

Private Equity Roll-Up of D2C Retail Darlings:

• Lack of roll-up activity observed, challenges faced by some.
• Economic factors and unexpected rate changes influenced outcomes.

Crypto's Persistence:

• Predicted crypto persistence in 2023.
• Acknowledgment of a cold year for crypto.
• Recent uptick in Bitcoin's value impacting the prediction.

Mass Merchants vs. Luxury Performance:

• Luxury sector booms, mass merchants face headwinds.
• Economic environment affects both sectors, with some deviations from expectations.

Incumbents Acquiring Venture-Backed Payments Companies:

• Successful prediction with Visa's acquisition of Pismo.
• Expectations for more acquisitions in the future.

Skyrocketing Consumer Borrowing Impact:

• Mixed outcomes with parts of the prediction playing out.
• Opportunities in credit servicing and data space observed.

Venture Funding Bottoming Out:

• Acknowledgment of being off on the timing.
• Return of scrappy founders observed in the market.

Venture Funding Continues to Fall:

• Scrappy founder mentality due to funding challenges.
• Adaptation to scarcity of venture dollars.

Retailers Invest in Automation:

• Confirmation of retailers investing in automation.
• Emphasis on AI's role in shaping the future of retail.

Outlook for 2024 Predictions:

AI Impact on Retail P&L:

• Prediction of AI-driven OpEx reductions at major retailers.
• Anticipation of actual impact on P&L.

Consumer Adoption of AI:

• Optimistic prediction of a significant number of Americans using AI daily or weekly.
• Examples from platforms like TikTok influencing AI adoption.

M&A Surge in 2024:

• Anticipation of increased M&A activity in the first half of the year.
• Factors include scale, revenue generation, and potential market closures before elections.

Crypto Market Resurgence:

• Prediction of a crypto market run-up in 2024.
• Factors include legal actions, regulatory clarity, and market sentiment.

Bank Industry Dynamics:

• Expectation of a bank collapse or acquisition due to challenges in commercial real estate.
• Potential impacts on the broader financial services landscape.

Chime IPO and Retail Market Response:

• Prediction of Chime's IPO and subsequent market reactions.
• Expectation of retail market emulation of successful models like SheIn.

Challenger Banks IPO Filings:

• Anticipation of IPO filings by large challenger banks.
• Questions about business model viability and profitability.

Interest Rate Changes:

• Expected sequence of events leading to interest rate reduction.
• Impact on lending and capital requirements for banks.