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Alphabet had a tremendous quarter on Wednesday.
The market took $299 billion from them anyway.
By Thursday's close, the Magnificent Seven had lost $895 billion in a single day. Not the market — those seven companies.
Two weeks ago we wrote that raised expectations made this earnings season dangerous. We were right about the asymmetry. We were wrong about the mechanism, and the mechanism is the story:
→ The market has stopped grading what these companies earn
→ It has started grading when investors get paid back
→ Alphabet says 2027. Amazon says 2027–2028. Tesla says two or three more years. OpenAI isn't expected to turn a profit until 2030
→ Meanwhile the 2-year Treasury is up 78 basis points in nine months
Every one of those bets got more expensive to wait for.
This week decides whether it holds. Wednesday: the Fed at 1:00 CDT, Warsh at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta after the close. Thursday: Apple and Amazon. These four are 53.6% of the Magnificent Seven by market cap.
And Apple is the interesting one. It’s the only member of the Seven that didn't make the infrastructure bet, and the only one the market has rewarded.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-wearing-thin/
By Andrew DorrAlphabet had a tremendous quarter on Wednesday.
The market took $299 billion from them anyway.
By Thursday's close, the Magnificent Seven had lost $895 billion in a single day. Not the market — those seven companies.
Two weeks ago we wrote that raised expectations made this earnings season dangerous. We were right about the asymmetry. We were wrong about the mechanism, and the mechanism is the story:
→ The market has stopped grading what these companies earn
→ It has started grading when investors get paid back
→ Alphabet says 2027. Amazon says 2027–2028. Tesla says two or three more years. OpenAI isn't expected to turn a profit until 2030
→ Meanwhile the 2-year Treasury is up 78 basis points in nine months
Every one of those bets got more expensive to wait for.
This week decides whether it holds. Wednesday: the Fed at 1:00 CDT, Warsh at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta after the close. Thursday: Apple and Amazon. These four are 53.6% of the Magnificent Seven by market cap.
And Apple is the interesting one. It’s the only member of the Seven that didn't make the infrastructure bet, and the only one the market has rewarded.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-wearing-thin/