Analysis of escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions reveals a fragile "tactical pause" rather than genuine de-escalation. Israel demands regime change and Iran's partition, while Washington faces massive risks with minimal short-term gains from military action. Iran has achieved maximum deterrence—its missile capabilities could overwhelm Israeli defenses in sustained conflict, potentially fracturing Israeli society. The situation involves six to seven regional actors, not just three parties. Meanwhile, Russia-Iran-China alignment is rapidly deepening through economic corridors and energy ties, making Iran increasingly "sanction-proof." Arab Gulf states fear devastation from regional war and resist enabling US-Israel aggression. Critically, the US envoy lacks credibility after deceiving Tehran before Israel's June attack. With Trump's transactional approach prioritizing Israel over US interests, and Pentagon planners warning of a prolonged attrition war—not a quick victory—the path to conflict remains dangerously open despite mounting political costs at home. 

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