In the final episode of season one of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects' Global Gas Analyst James Waddell discusses our outlook for the North American natural gas and power markets this summer and into 2021 with Nina Fahy, our Head of North America Natural Gas, and Head of North American Power Peter Rosenthal.

There are a lot of moving parts in this summer’s gas balances, from LNG export curtailment to production volatility following oil well shut-ins from April, and all this is happening amid the continued overhang from the coronavirus on both industrial demand and overall power usage. Prices ratcheted lower to pick up excess power demand, at least until temperatures spiked this summer. These will help push end-of-season inventories toward record highs.

Power demand continues to claw back consumption lost to factory and office closures, but we expect the recovery will be lumpy as the spread of COVID-19 persists in the US, and the overall economy may take years to reach output levels seen in 2019. This, along with upcoming capacity auctions and the November presidential election, will determine if coal retirements will increase further.