At a moment when the old global order is fraying and the future feels radically uncertain, how can we prepare for what comes next?

In this episode of Per Capita, Joe Waters speaks with Nils Gilman, Senior Advisor at the Berggruen Institute, about how to think systematically about the future in a moment of institutional rupture and geopolitical instability. Drawing on his intellectual journey—from Berkeley in the aftermath of the Cold War to Silicon Valley and his work in scenario planning—Nils explains the importance of interrogating assumptions, analyzing intersecting technological, demographic, political, and ecological trends, and challenging the “official future” narratives that shape collective expectations. He reflects on how historical change often emerges either from centers of power or from the periphery, and situates today’s disruptions within a broader pattern of punctuated equilibrium.

Nils discusses the concept of the “planetary,” developed in his book Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking for an Age of Crises, and its ethical commitment to multispecies flourishing. He argues that existing institutions are ill-equipped to manage planetary-scale challenges. Rather than advocating world government Nils proposes “planetary subsidiarity”: narrowly tailored institutions that address specific transboundary problems while preserving local democratic agency. 

Addressing America’s current political trajectory, democratic fragility, and the retreat from international institutions, Nils urges us to learn from other countries' experiences with authoritarianism and to strengthen civil society, scientific capacity, and participatory governance as foundations for a more resilient and ecologically grounded future.

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