4D Music – ExperiMental Music

Perma-Unfrosted

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[Verse 1]

Old assumption
Makes an ass of you and me
(Assume)
Resume
Observed reality

[Chorus]

Oh my gawd
(Thawed)
More dire
(It’s on fire)

[Bridge]

Once again…
(Blowin’ in the wind)
Fanning flames higher!

[Verse 2]

Fires combust
Change is a must
(Really)
Orders of magnitude faster
A disaster
(Reality)

[Chorus]

Oh my gawd
(Thawed)
More dire
(It’s on fire)

[Bridge]

Once again…
(Blowin’ in the wind)
Fanning flames higher!

[Chorus]

Oh my gawd
(Thawed)
More dire
(It’s on fire)

[Outro]

Once again…
(Blowin’ in the wind)
Where have you been
(Fanning flames higher?)
The world’s on fire
(Do you understand)
The fate of man?

A SCIENCE NOTE — Permafrost: From Slow Thaw to Year-Round Fire

The permafrost is one of the starkest examples of the gap between theory and reality:

  • Old assumption: Permafrost would thaw gradually over thousands of years, steadily releasing CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere.
  • Observed reality: Large regions are no longer “permanently” frozen. Instead, they are catching fire and burning year-round, releasing greenhouse gases on much shorter timescales.

    • This raises new scientific uncertainties:

    • Fires combust organic matter directly, accelerating CO2 emissions.
    • If methane is burned in situ during these fires, some fraction may be converted into CO2 (a less potent but still powerful greenhouse gas) — effectively acting as a “natural flare.”
    • Yet, unburned methane still escapes, and the net balance between flaring vs. direct release remains poorly quantified.

      • What is clear is that the pace of release is orders of magnitude faster than assumed, and the feedbacks are already active, not hypothetical.

      Conclusion: Humanity’s Chosen Fate

      The question is not whether Earth will warm — it is how fast, how far, and how violently feedbacks will accelerate the process. A 9°C rise this century may or may not occur, but even “consensus” outcomes (~3°C) would be catastrophic.

      The decisive factor is human action: whether we allow runaway feedbacks to trigger an irreversible “Hothouse Earth,” or whether we cut emissions, restore ecosystems, and adapt quickly enough to keep habitable zones intact.

      We are not just modeling the future — we are choosing it.

      * Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.

      We examine how human activities — such as deforestation, fossil fuel combustion, mass consumption, industrial agriculture, and land development — interact with ecological processes like thermal energy redistribution, carbon cycling, hydrological flow, biodiversity loss, and the spread of disease vectors. These interactions do not follow linear cause-and-effect patterns. Instead, they form complex, self-reinforcing feedback loops that can trigger rapid, system-wide transformations — often abruptly and without warning. Grasping these dynamics is crucial for accurately assessing global risks and developing effective strategies for long-term survival.

       

      Tipping points and feedback loops drive the acceleration of climate change. When one tipping point is breached and triggers others, the cascading collapse is known as the Domino Effect.
      The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

      From the album “Sting“

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