Do reformers have to be popular to be successful? It’s a conundrum thinkers have agonised over for centuries. Our guest, the EBRD’s Chief Economist, Sergei Guriev, looks at how the concept of political economy has evolved and discusses the dynamic between rulers, ruled and reforms. He also analyses the importance of leaders’ popularity in both democratic and authoritarian regimes and previews our next Transition Report, which focuses on inequality.

Pocket Economics:  Political Economy and Reforms: the popularity paradox

Listen to leading economists looking at the latest economic data, debunking myths and defining the risks we need to watch out for – and those we don’t.

News

Listen to the live launch of the EBRD Transition Report launch.

The global shift to net zero will require major structural changes in economies, as well as extensive change in daily lives. The scale of the transition is unprecedented: from the rush to source critical raw materials to the reconfiguration of global supply chains; from the rise of green skills in the workforce to the development of environmentally sustainable housing markets.

The EBRD Transition Report 2023-24: Transitions big and small, published today, offers revealing insights into the way macro-level trends leading to carbon neutrality impact the types of job sought, household management and, ultimately, the perceived level of happiness in the regions where the Bank operates.

EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said: “The change and upheaval that stems from these trends will affect people’s lives for the foreseeable future. Policymakers will need to establish a deep understanding of those effects in order to plan future stages of the green transition, as individual attitudes will both shape and be shaped by that transition process. […]

“The success of the green transition will depend on winning their hearts and minds as we continue our journey towards a cleaner future. If there is one thing we have learned from 30 years of transition in the EBRD regions, it is that reforms will not last unless they have broad-based support.”

The discussion features

Charlotta Källbäck, Head of Internal Audit, Volvo Cars
Sandra Bates, specialist on mining and clean energy with Executive and non-Executive Director experience
Mark Keese, Head of the Skills and Employment Division, OECD
Professor Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, EBRD
Moderated by Jonathan Charles

EBRD Transition Report 2023-24 live launch

Policymakers and investors need to be aware of the short and long-term challenges Ukraine faces during the war and those that the country will have to deal with in the post-war period.

This panel takes a broad look at the historical experience of war and peace and examines the impact that armed conflicts have had on economic performance and political, social and population trends, both during the wars and after they end.

This retrospective provides some indication of the sheer scale of the challenges that Ukraine has been subject to and will face during the reconstruction stage. On that basis, the panel draws conclusions that can inform policymakers’ and investors’ short- and long-term responses to those challenges. 

Moderator

Jonathan Charles, Strategic Communications Consultant and Broadcaster
Speakers

Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, EBRD
Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, The Brookings Institution
Harold James, Professor of History, Princeton University
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Guido Goldman Distinguished Scholar for Geostrategy, GMF
Peter Frankopan, Professor of Global History, Oxford University

War And Post - War Economics  Lessons For Ukraine

The much-anticipated EBRD Regional Economic Prospects were back in the new panel discussion format for a special EBRD Annual Meeting 2023 edition. The interactive discussion covered the latest economic forecasts for the regions where the EBRD invests. EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik discussed with outstanding regional experts the extraordinary challenges that policymakers are confronted with in the world of relentless inflationary pressures and repeated economic crises. 
Keynote speaker

Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, EBRD
Moderator

Jonathan Charles, Strategic Communications Consultant and Broadcaster
Speakers

Sergei Guriev, Professor of Economics, Institut d'Études Politiques
Heike Harmgart, Managing Director, Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, EBRD

Regional Economic Prospects 2023

Nearly nine months after the Russian invasion, the war has seriously affected Ukraine’s economy, which is facing daunting tasks.

These tasks require collective efforts and coordination among the country’s policymakers, businesses and international community, including the EBRD. The main objective of this discussion is to bring together representatives of key stakeholders to discuss optimal policies and necessary investments to help the process of Ukraine’s stabilisation and rebuilding.

Ukraine Event Special: Investment in the real economy and the role of the EBRD

Nearly nine months after the Russian invasion, the war has seriously affected Ukraine’s economy, which is facing daunting tasks. Macroeconomic and financial sector stability are essential for the continued functioning of the economy and maintaining the war effort. Supporting and stimulating the real economy are the key elements of its economic sustainability.

Participants:

Odile Renaud-Basso,  President,  EBRD
Tymofiy Mylovanov, President, Kyiv School of Economics
Torbjörn Becker, Professor of economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics – SITE and CEPR
Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, EBRD (moderator)

Pocket Economics: Political Economy and Reforms: the popularity paradox

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