We’ve turned the corner on the summer and time will start moving quickly. We’re all out there running, biking, working out getting ready for those sweet powder days, but don’t forget, it can be dangerous out there, so you better watch yo’ self. The bums share some of their recent experiences where failed to do so.

Overview: El Niño is transitioning to La Niña. In other words, the water in the South Pacific near the Equator is cooling off. Why does this matter? It matters because it will change the average position of the jet stream this winter. The jet stream guides storm systems around the globe ultimately determining where the heaviest snow falls in any given winter season.

Outlook: A low grade La Niña (aka La Niña Lite) will be the dominate player by late fall and continue through the winter season. What does that mean? It means the storm track will favor certain areas for heavier than average snowfall. Those areas may be different than last winter. I believe we'll see the heaviest snow in the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain West, Great Lakes and possibly parts of the Northeast.

Biggest Winners: La Niña tilts the odds in favor of above average snowfall for Mount Baker, Mount Hood, Mount Rainier, Mount Bachelor, Whistler, Lake Louise, Schweitzer, Sun Valley, Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Discovery, Whitefish, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Steamboat, Buffalo Pass, Squaw Valley, Northstar and Heavenly.

Mildly Favored: Aspen, Snowmass, Copper, Vail, Loveland, Alta, Snowbird, Snowbasin, Park City, Jay Peak, Smuggers' Notch, Stowe, Sugarbush, Sugarloaf and Killington.

Tomer's Take: The above forecast percentages are a broad-brush look at the winter as a whole rather than any specific month alone. It is a forecast. I'll be closely watching the south Pacific trade winds and water temperatures in the next two months. If you're planning an early winter ski trip it will be important to know those two details. For example, will we have good snow coverage by Thanksgiving? How about by Christmas? Those answers will become more apparent in the next two months.

Come join us to celebrate TGRs 21st Birthday. The tighter your show the looser you can be. With over 21 years of traveling the globe and pushing the boundaries of what is possible we have experienced the full spectrum of adventure. It has been a constant evolution of refining a lifestyle - keeping things as buttoned-up on the front end in order to seize the moment when things reach the edge of control. Our latest film "Tight Loose" is TGR's highest achievement to date. From India to Alaska, come join us as we discover unridden spine walls, massive airs, and full throttle riding in some of the wildest and most spectacular places on earth. Witness the 21-year athlete roster as they come together for a reunion-style massive group shred of the Palisades at Squaw Valley. Tight Loose is living to the fullest!

RUIN AND ROSE Official Traile