Does the phrase “Subjective Probability Estimation” make you feel uncomfortable? If you’re a data-driven professional, you’re likely wary of each of those terms on their own, let alone combining them into one thing.

But we sometimes need to do it. And we can practice to get better at it.

In this episode, we emphasize the importance of subjective probability estimations in decision-making, especially in situations where concrete data may be unavailable or impractical.

We talk about:

Inspired by Douglas W. Hubbard’s “The Failure of Risk Management,” we uncover strategies to sharpen our estimation skills. Consistent practice leads to improvements. Whether it’s by imagining you’re betting money, breaking down complex estimations, or engaging in true-false trivia, this episode emphasizes regular practice in refining these skills.

Let’s create a shared database of estimation questions to foster a community of learning and improvement.

Sign up for “FMEA in Practice: From Plan to Risk-Based Decision Making”. Available on Udemy.com.

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